- Month end related flows have helped boost the US dollar in an otherwise quiet week as investors seek inspiration. Slightly higher treasury yields helped to boost the greenback despite mixed US data. Preliminary Durable Goods orders rose 1.4% in February, beating forecasts, however the previous month was revised lower. Headline Consumer Confidence was broadly unchanged this month after deteriorating in February, with consumers pessimistic about future prospects with the expectations element dropping to 73.8 against the previous reading of 76.3. Labor market expectations were also pessimistic with consumers less worried about recession risks but increasingly worried about the jobs market. The FOMC will be noting their concerns as official continue to ponder the first rate cut of the cycle.
- The Japanese yen lost further ground against the US dollar, trading to its lowest level in 34 years to within a whisker of 152. The lack of support for the yen after the first rate hike since 2007 has prompted many investors to believe that the BoJ needs to step in to support the currency. Last nights move pushed USDJPY beyond the level where the central bank stepped in to markets in October 2022, however some feel that the BoJ will not enter the market until we trade at 155.
- The BoE’s Catherine Mann was on the wires yesterday, explaining her decision to vote to hold interest rates at the last MPC meeting. Considered a hawk, Mann shifted from a hike at the previous meeting, citing a softer labour market and softer consumer spending as reasons for her shift. She also stated that currently the market is pricing in too many rate cuts from the BoE and that they are unlikely to move before the FOMC.
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