Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
June 26, 2024

  • US data released yesterday showed that Consumer Confidence cooled slightly in June, with the print coming in at 100.4, down from 101.3. The report showed that confidence in the US remains at low levels due to uncertainty around the economic outlook. The US dollar took the news within its stride, with the dollar index broadly unchanged and EURUSD hovering above 1.07. Markets continue to focus on the outlook for US interest rates, and yesterday Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said that it would be appropriate to reduce interest rates “at some point” adding that she expects inflation to improve gradually this year before more rapid progress is made next year. She continued with the well scripted recent Fed speak adding, “the timing of any such adjustment will depend on how economic data evolve and what they imply for the economic outlook and balance of risks.” Interest rates in the US have now been unchanged for almost a year, with officials at the FOMC continuing to say that they need to see more data to be convinced that inflation is on a sustainable path towards the central banks 2% target.
  • USDJPY continues to grind higher, trading close to the psychological 160 level, where some analysts suggest that the BoJ may be looking to intervene again. The yen has fallen around 12% against the greenback this year and month end rebalancing and Friday’s key PCE inflation data may be the triggers needed to test the resolve of the BoJ.
  • Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar posted gains after the May inflation report came in higher than expected for a third straight month. The print came in at 4% against expectations of 3.8% and boosting bets that the RBA will be forced to resume raising interest rates at its next policy meeting.

Economic Calendar

:
AUD - MI Leading Index m/m
:
AUD - CPI y/y
:
EUR - German GfK Consumer Climate
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CHF - UBS Economic Expectations
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GBP - CBI Realized Sales
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CHF - SNB Quarterly Bulletin
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CNY - CB Leading Index m/m
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USD - New Home Sales
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USD - Crude Oil Inventories
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USD - Bank Stress Test Results
:
JPY - Retail Sales y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.84464 0.84411
gbp/usd 1.26933 1.26791
gbp/aud 1.91073 1.89902
gbp/nzd 2.07568 2.07095
usd/jpy 159.901 159.663
eur/usd 1.07179 1.07061
gbp/jpy 202.877 202.486
eur/cnh 7.81219 7.7998
usd/cnh 7.29304 7.28563
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 19782.7
DOW 39193.8
S&P 500 5488.68
BRENT CRUDE 85.39
WTI 81.26
GOLD 2316.95

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.