Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
June 28, 2024

  • Yesterday was another fairly muted session for currencies with markets stuck between corporate month end flows and true month end flows expected today. US GDP data was revised up a tad to 1.4%, however consumer spending was revised sharply lower from 2.0% to 1.15%. Overall, recent data does not suggest that the US economy is facing an aggressive rate easing cycle, however markets will today be focusing on the release of the PCE data, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. We have waited all week for the most important data release, and analysts are expecting monthly core PCE inflation to register its slowest pace all year.
  • The US held its first Presidential debate last night, where Biden has several stumbles and his voice sounded somewhat soft, however as expected Trump came across loud and spoke strongly. Biden criticised Trump’s proposed tax cuts and Trump called for higher tariffs, ignoring the impact for inflation and the economy. Voters have rated the economy as one of the defining issues of the campaign, with voters sceptical of Biden’s record despite solid job growth.
  • Data released this morning showed that the UK economy grew more than previously expected during the first three months of the year with GDP expanding 0.7% in the first quarter. The above consensus print was driven by services, as well as consumer spending which came our better than expected. The print showed the fastest growth in two years and will likely be used as an argument by PM Rishi Sunak ahead of next weeks election. The pound has barely reacted to the news and continues to consolidate in the low 1.26’s, well within its recent trading range.

Economic Calendar

:
USD - President Biden Speaks
:
AUD - Private Sector Credit m/m
:
JPY - Housing Starts y/y
:
EUR - German Import Prices m/m
:
GBP - Current Account
:
GBP - Final GDP q/q
:
GBP - Revised Business Investment q/q
:
EUR - French Consumer Spending m/m
:
EUR - French Prelim CPI m/m
:
CHF - KOF Economic Barometer
:
EUR - Spanish Flash CPI y/y
:
EUR - German Unemployment Change
:
EUR - Italian Prelim CPI m/m
:
USD - FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
:
CAD - GDP m/m
:
USD - Core PCE Price Index m/m
:
USD - Personal Income m/m
:
USD - Personal Spending m/m
:
USD - Chicago PMI
:
USD - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
:
USD - Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
:
USD - Fed Monetary Policy Report
:
USD - FOMC Member Bowman Speaks

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.84722 0.84622
gbp/usd 1.26466 1.2622
gbp/aud 1.90677 1.90094
gbp/nzd 2.0837 2.07778
usd/jpy 161.282 160.647
eur/usd 1.07108 1.06853
gbp/jpy 203.585 203.114
eur/cnh 7.82267 7.7935
usd/cnh 7.3065 7.29476
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 19894
DOW 39222.3
S&P 500 5506.02
BRENT CRUDE 85.7
WTI 82.22
GOLD 2322.46

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.