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Home > Market Watch > EU & UK News > Mon July 1, 2024

Daily Insights
July 1, 2024

  • European politics are set to lead the markets’ agenda this week with British general election and a second round of the French vote.
  • Marine Le Pen’s far-right party seemed to win the first round of votes less comfortably than many polls estimated and the euro has taken advantage of that, advancing this morning to near 1.0775 as it seems like Le Pen will struggle to win a majority in the elections, easing investors’ concerns that the second largest economy in euro-area was headed for a more radical political shift and a reshape of France’s economic and fiscals policies.
  • Euro-area headline inflation (Tue.) is expected to tick lower towards the central bank’s 2% target in June. Services prices are estimated to have a more modest decrease, keeping the central bank on its toes when it is time to consider the next rate cut. ECB’s meeting minutes are also due (Thur.) and ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal is also on the spotlight where ECB’s President Christine Lagarde and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are due to speak (Tue.).
  • There is not much in the spectrum of data for the UK apart from a UK Nationwide house prices survey which will likely show the recovery in Britain’s housing market is bumpy. All eyes are on the General election due on the 4th of July and the sterling advances toward 1.27 this morning.

 

  • Across the pond, recent economic data has shown that the Fed’s restrictive policy is finally showing its effects on the economy. Consumers have spent less, and price pressures have decreased, and this week’s data should continue to provide more evidence. Nonfarm payrolls (Fri.) will likely show a net gain of 188,000 from prior 272,000 and the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4%. The FOMC meeting minutes (Wed.) will be key for investors as some officials remain doubtful that rate cuts will be needed until the end of this year.

Economic Calendar

01 Jul 2024
:
JPY - Final Manufacturing PMI
:
AUD - MI Inflation Gauge m/m
:
AUD - ANZ Job Advertisements m/m
:
CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI
:
JPY - Consumer Confidence
:
GBP - Nationwide HPI m/m
:
EUR - German Prelim CPI m/m
:
AUD - Commodity Prices y/y
:
CHF - Retail Sales y/y
:
EUR - Spanish Manufacturing PMI
:
CHF - Manufacturing PMI
:
EUR - Italian Manufacturing PMI
:
EUR - French Final Manufacturing PMI
:
EUR - German Final Manufacturing PMI
:
EUR - Final Manufacturing PMI
:
GBP - Final Manufacturing PMI
:
GBP - M4 Money Supply m/m
:
GBP - Mortgage Approvals
:
GBP - Net Lending to Individuals m/m
:
CAD - Bank Holiday
:
EUR - German Buba President Nagel Speaks
:
USD - Final Manufacturing PMI
:
USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI
:
USD - ISM Manufacturing Prices
:
USD - Construction Spending m/m
:
EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks
:
NZD - NZIER Business Confidence
:
NZD - Building Consents m/m
:
GBP - BRC Shop Price Index y/y
:
JPY - Monetary Base y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.84984 0.84688
gbp/usd 1.26765 1.26245
gbp/aud 1.90038 1.88898
gbp/nzd 2.07821 2.06415
usd/jpy 161.186 160.526
eur/usd 1.07678 1.07294
gbp/jpy 204.103 202.495
eur/cnh 7.86241 7.8176
usd/cnh 7.30381 7.2874
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 19805
DOW 39250.6
S&P 500 5489.86
BRENT CRUDE 85.48
WTI 82
GOLD 2324.05

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

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