Daily Insights

July 12, 2024

US Consumer Price Index report for June released on Thursday showed signs of broad disinflation, coming in lower than the “already good” report in May. The Core CPI gauge, which does not account for food and energy prices, advanced 0.1% month-on-month, which was widely expected by economists and the yearly print at 3.3% vs. 3.4% estimates, the lowest since April 2021. Headline CPI dropped by 0.1% month-on-month, while the yearly measure fell to 3.0%, vs. 3.1% estimates.
This data boosts the chance of the Fed starting its interest rate cutting cycle as soon as September, with traders pricing in at least two cuts before the end of the year. Treasuries quickly reacted, sending 2y yields lower by 13 basis points, ultimately driving the greenback lower.
Following the data, the yen surged more than 2% against the US Dollar creating speculation that Tokyo intervened in the FX Market to support the currency, which hasn’t been confirmed yet.

Cable currently holds at 1.29 after trading as high as 1.2950 yesterday following US Data, which was then rejected higher. The Euro continues little changed and remains under 1.09. US PPI data is set to be released this afternoon, and it feeds into the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – core PCE. If we see a weaker print, the US Dollar could continue to decline, opening the way for GBP/USD and EUR/USD to higher levels.

Economic Calendar

12 Jul 2024

CNY - Trade Balance

CNY - USD-Denominated Trade Balance

JPY - Revised Industrial Production m/m

EUR - German WPI m/m

EUR - French Final CPI m/m

CNY - M2 Money Supply y/y

CNY - New Loans

CNY - Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y

GBP - BOE Quarterly Bulletin

CAD - Building Permits m/m

USD - Core PPI m/m

USD - PPI m/m

USD - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

USD - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs

Pair	High	Low
eur/gbp	0.84215	0.84132
gbp/usd	1.29241	1.29018
gbp/aud	1.91087	1.9064
gbp/nzd	2.12408	2.11536
usd/jpy	159.386	157.975
eur/usd	1.08744	1.08633
gbp/jpy	205.665	204.164
eur/cnh	7.90992	7.8927
usd/cnh	7.27806	7.26084

Equities and Commodities

Nasdaq 100	20238.1
DOW	39864.2
S&P 500	5597.97
BRENT CRUDE	85.8
WTI	83.09
GOLD	2406.28

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

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July 12, 2024

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Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights July 12, 2024

Economic Calendar

Market Indicators

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Daily Insights

July 12, 2024