The dollar index is lower by 0.54% today, finally breaking below support at 104.00 after four attempts since April. Congestion at 103.50 will likely act as short-term support, but today’s move has opened the door to a move lower to 102.50. The dollar index has been trading within a 101.00/106.75 long-term range since December of 2022.
In a recent interview Trump, riding a wave of sharply higher odds of a return to the White House, addressed the dollar’s long-term strength, saying it has eroded American competitiveness, while yen and yuan weakness has been an unbalanced advantage for Japan and China. The comments have contributed to today’s dollar weakness and are the first volley of what could become a concerted effort to talk the dollar down if Trump wins the presidency.
Japan’s chief currency official Kanda said today that Japan will respond to excessive moves in foreign exchange rates. Japan has intervened twice this month, selling an estimated $22bio to buy yen. The yen is leading all gains in FX today, +1.29% vs. CAD, +1.26% vs. AUD, +1.19% vs. USD, +0.89% vs. GBP and +0.87% vs. EUR.
U.S. Housing Starts for June were 1353k, above the 1300k estimate and ahead of May’s revised 1314k. MoM Housing Starts were +3.0% (1.8% estimate).
Gold reached $2,473.60/oz today, a new all-time high, and is +2.58% since Friday’s close. Bitcoin is +0.34% today and +12.84% since Friday.
