Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
August 5, 2024

  • Friday’s Non-farm Payroll came in weaker than expected at just 114k against expectations of 175k, triggering a US dollar sell off. The unemployment rate came in at 4.3% alerting fears of a softening economy and jobs market. The softer than forecast data makes a September rate cut even more likely and possibly opens the door to a 50bp reduction from the Fed. The Japanese yen continued its rally, further boosted by the weaker dollar to trade at a fresh low in the mid 142’s.
  • It is a quiet week for both UK and euro area data, with German Industrial Production data the main event on the docket. German industry is continuing to struggle as high energy costs and weak global demand weigh on the sector. EURUSD is hovering around 1.09 after trading as high as 1.0940 after the disappointing US labor market report.
  • Markets will be paying close attention to Fedspeak in the coming weeks to see if a 50bp cut in September is on the cards. With the central bank continuing to be “data dependant” officials will sit up and take notice of the poor labor market outlook and the impact on the outlook. Later today we await the ISM Services Index which is expected to remain stable but below the 50 mark that separates contraction from expansion. There is very little data on the docket until Thursday’s initial jobless claims which could come in above 250k pointing to further weakness in the employment market.

Economic Calendar

:
AUD - MI Inflation Gauge m/m
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NZD - ANZ Commodity Prices m/m
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CNY - Caixin Services PMI
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EUR - Spanish Services PMI
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EUR - Italian Services PMI
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EUR - French Final Services PMI
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EUR - German Final Services PMI
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EUR - Final Services PMI
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EUR - Sentix Investor Confidence
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GBP - Final Services PMI
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EUR - PPI m/m
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CAD - Bank Holiday
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USD - FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks
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USD - Final Services PMI
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USD - ISM Services PMI
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USD - Loan Officer Survey
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USD - FOMC Member Daly Speaks
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GBP - BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
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JPY - Average Cash Earnings y/y
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JPY - Household Spending y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85786 0.85116
gbp/usd 1.28103 1.27098
gbp/aud 2.00376 1.95479
gbp/nzd 2.17452 2.14375
usd/jpy 146.559 141.67
eur/usd 1.09398 1.08973
gbp/jpy 187.582 180.062
eur/cnh 7.8193 7.75212
usd/cnh 7.16423 7.10777
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 17771.7
DOW 39463.3
S&P 500 5252.17
BRENT CRUDE 76.46
WTI 73.31
GOLD 2445.88

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.