Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
September 6, 2024

  • We had another round of soft US jobs data to digest yesterday ahead of today’s eagerly awaited Non-farm Payroll print. The ADP Private Payroll report came in 99k, which was considerably below market expectations of 145k, and was the lowest print since January 2021. The previous month was also revised lower, and coupled with recent labor markets stats, suggests moderating growth in employment. The weekly jobless claims came in a little better than expected, triggering a modest US Dollar sell off throughout the session. Treasury yields also softened as markets continue to digest the labor market data and its impact on the timing and size of future rate cuts from the central bank.
  • All eyes will be on the August jobs report at 1.30pm UK time, as today’s release will be crucial for Fed policy going forward. Market expectations are for a print of around 175k, and for the jobless rate to come in at 4.2%. An inline print would likely suggest that the Fed would be prepared to cut interest rates by 25bp per quarter, starting at the September meeting. Markets will be paying attention for a very soft print which would increase the odds of a recession and would bring a 50bp rate cut this month on to the table.
  • The softer greenback helped to push EURUSD above the psychological 1.11 level where it is currently consolidating ahead of resistance at 1.1120. Similarly, GBPUSD rallied to test resistance at 1.3185, and dipped a touch as markets look to tread water ahead of this afternoon’s key data.

Economic Calendar

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JPY - Leading Indicators
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EUR - German Industrial Production m/m
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EUR - German Trade Balance
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GBP - Halifax HPI m/m
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EUR - French Industrial Production m/m
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EUR - French Trade Balance
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CHF - Foreign Currency Reserves
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CHF - SECO Consumer Climate
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EUR - Italian Retail Sales m/m
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EUR - Final Employment Change q/q
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EUR - Revised GDP q/q
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CAD - Employment Change
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CAD - Unemployment Rate
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USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m
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USD - Non-Farm Employment Change
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USD - Unemployment Rate
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USD - FOMC Member Williams Speaks
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CAD - Ivey PMI
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USD - FOMC Member Waller Speaks

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.8438 0.843
gbp/usd 1.3182 1.31718
gbp/aud 1.96047 1.95402
gbp/nzd 2.12161 2.11667
usd/jpy 143.48 142.406
eur/usd 1.11185 1.11082
gbp/jpy 189.049 187.611
eur/cnh 7.88184 7.8668
usd/cnh 7.09342 7.07853
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 18829.8
DOW 40753.6
S&P 500 5492.98
BRENT CRUDE 72.75
WTI 69.28
GOLD 2520.12

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.