- Data released this morning showed that UK Average Earnings excluding bonuses rose 5.1% from a year earlier, the smallest increase since the Summer of 2022, and broadly inline with expectations. Private sector pay growth eased to 4.9%, to the lowest level in two years, showing another step down in ongoing wage pressures that suggests that the BoE should be free to cut interest rates again before the end of the year. The central bank next meets on September 19 and next week’s CPI data will be closely monitored to see if the MPC can follow up on the June reduction and cut the benchmark rate by a further 25 basis points. The pound barely moved on the data and GBPUSD is hovering below 1.31 this morning. Cable remains one of the best performing currencies in G10, despite slipping from 1.3230 after Friday’s softer Non-farm Payroll release.
- The US dollar is treading water, but a touch higher in the absence of any key data or Fed speak yesterday as central banker head to the blackout period ahead of the next FOMC meeting. A monster rate cut from the Fed appears to be off the table now, but tomorrow’s CPI release will give us further clues. The market may be able to get behind a front runner in the US election, as investors look forward to the US Presidential debate for more hints on policy priorities for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump.
- EURUSD is little changed, trading sideways above 1.10 and seeking direction. The pair has followed a similar path to GBPUSD at the start of the week, drifting lower as expectations of a 50bp Fed cut are receding. US CPI and Thursday’s ECB meeting are the main events in the coming days, but a lack of buying interest is currently keeping a cap on the single currency.
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