Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
October 21, 2024

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The DXY index is trading below 103.60 this morning as a renewed US dollar demand is supporting the greenback.

This week the IMF will be meeting in Washington, D.C. to discuss stabilising international exchange rates and facilitating development amongst member countries.

A number of Fed members will be speaking during at the IMF meeting this week, where traders will pay close attention to any clues that will influence the FOMC interest rate decision on Nov. 7.

Other data this week will come from the Fed’s Beige Book report on Wednesday. With the survey providing an overall view of US economic growth, this information will be key for dollar movement.

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EURUSD is trading near 1.0850 early this morning as it continues a slow downtrend. Last week reached lows not seen since July, hitting 1.0814 on Thursday, following the ECB interest rate cut of  a 25bps cut.

This week there are speeches from ECB President Lagarde and Chief Economist Lane on Tuesday.

Headline data will come on Thursday, where HCOB PMI data will be released, where figures remain constant from the previous report. Composite PMI is expected to increase from 49.6 to 49.7, with slight increases from manufacturing and services PMI as well.

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Cable is trading below 1.3050 at the start of the week, being influenced by slight US dollar strength. With markets risk-averse ahead of the upcoming Fedspeak, with chances of the currency pair depreciating further.

Bank of England figures will be giving a number of speeches on Tuesday, coming from Greene, Governor Bailey, and Breeden. On Thursday, UK PMI data will be released. Composite PMI is expected to decrease slightly, from 52.6 to 52.5. Manufacturing and services PMI are expected to remain stable.

 

World News

 

This week the Bank of Canada will have their interest rate decision, with predictions of a 50bps cut. With downside surprise in September headline inflation and the Fed’s previous 50bps cut, the BoC have space to accelerate their own cutting pace from 4.25% to 3.75%.

Economic Calendar

:
AUD - RBA Deputy Gov Hauser Speaks
:
CNY - 1-y Loan Prime Rate
:
CNY - 5-y Loan Prime Rate
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NZD - Credit Card Spending y/y
:
EUR - German PPI m/m
:
CNY - Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
:
USD - FOMC Member Logan Speaks
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USD - CB Leading Index m/m
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All - IMF Meetings
:
USD - FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
:
USD - FOMC Member Schmid Speaks
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NZD - Trade Balance
:
USD - FOMC Member Daly Speaks

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.83324 0.83148
gbp/usd 1.30575 1.30207
gbp/aud 1.9501 1.941
gbp/nzd 2.15222 2.1416
usd/jpy 149.705 149.086
eur/usd 1.08714 1.08488
gbp/jpy 195.325 194.563
eur/cnh 7.7383 7.72355
usd/cnh 7.12765 7.1065
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 20316.7
DOW 43356.1
S&P 500 5871.37
BRENT CRUDE 73.56
WTI 69.69
GOLD 2731.37

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Matthew Hunter

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Matthew Hunter is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Matthew studied business strategy, focusing on international finance and political science. Matthew looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.