Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
October 30, 2024

  • The pound is steady ahead of the first Labour Party budget in 14 years, which Chancellor Rachel Reeves warned involves “difficult decisions.” The Chancellor has a challenging task of ending austerity, boosting growth and delivering fiscal stability whilst reassuring financial markets that her party can be trusted to look after the UK’s finances. Tax rises will be the main headline grabbers, with Reeves expected to raise around GBP 35 billion a year in tax and welfare savings. GBPUSD is hovering around the 1.30 area ahead of the budget with the pair likely to drift sideways before Reeves stands to deliver her budget at 12.30pm UK time. Resistance comes in at 1.3045 and on the downside, the psychological 1.29 area acts as support ahead of 1.2860. EURGBP continues to find decent support at 0.83, a level which has been steadfast all the way back to the Brexit vote.
  • Labor market data out of the US remains the key event of the week, with Friday’s Non-farm Payroll print eagerly awaited ahead of the election and FOMC meeting next week. Data released yesterday showed that September job openings were down to 7.4million from a downwardly revised 7.9million in the previous month. Recent data suggests that the jobs market in the US is cooling and today we await the ADP Private payroll release which is expected to come in around 110,000 versus last month’s print of 143,000.
  • EURUSD bounced off support at 1.0770 yesterday, catching a bid to propel the pair back to a 1.08 handle. Euro area GDP is released this morning, and markets expect the regions economy to have expanded by 0.2% in the third quarter. German GDP will be closely monitored with the bloc’s largest economy expected to have contracted by 0.1% in Q3, unchanged from the second quarter. The manufacturing and construction sectors are struggling and household consumption showing no clear signs of a revival, potentially pushing the country into a recession.

Economic Calendar

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AUD - CPI q/q
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AUD - CPI y/y
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AUD - Trimmed Mean CPI q/q
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JPY - Consumer Confidence
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EUR - German Prelim CPI m/m
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EUR - French Consumer Spending m/m
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EUR - French Flash GDP q/q
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CHF - KOF Economic Barometer
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EUR - Spanish Flash CPI y/y
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EUR - Spanish Flash GDP q/q
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EUR - German Unemployment Change
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CHF - Gov Board Member Schlegel Speaks
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CHF - UBS Economic Expectations
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EUR - Italian Prelim GDP q/q
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EUR - German Prelim GDP q/q
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CHF - SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks
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EUR - Prelim Flash GDP q/q
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EUR - Italian 10-y Bond Auction
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USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
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USD - Advance GDP q/q
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USD - Advance GDP Price Index q/q
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GBP - Autumn Forecast Statement
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USD - Pending Home Sales m/m
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USD - Crude Oil Inventories
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EUR - German Buba President Nagel Speaks
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CAD - BOC Gov Macklem Speaks
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JPY - Prelim Industrial Production m/m
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JPY - Retail Sales y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.83218 0.83131
gbp/usd 1.30201 1.29958
gbp/aud 1.98844 1.98022
gbp/nzd 2.18426 2.17717
usd/jpy 153.44 153.07
eur/usd 1.08259 1.08129
gbp/jpy 199.573 199.122
eur/cnh 7.73472 7.7236
usd/cnh 7.15233 7.13523
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 20625.6
DOW 42317.9
S&P 500 5854.24
BRENT CRUDE 71.58
WTI 67.73
GOLD 2785.99

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.