Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
October 31, 2024

  • The US dollar remained steady overnight despite mixed US data as markets continue to focus on the upcoming election and the potential impact on the economy. After a weaker than expected JOLTs report, the ADP Private Payroll print came in considerably above estimates at 223,000 versus expectations on 111,000. Whilst there is no strict correlation between ADP and NFP, Friday’s jobless report will be closely scrutinised for further signs of a slowing labor market. US GDP for the third quarter came in at 2.8%, led by a strong US consumer with PCE growing by 3.7%. The greenback was broadly unchanged despite some volatility in treasuries which was in part driven by gilts reacting to yesterday’s UK budget.
  • UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her eagerly awaited budget yesterday announcing GBP 40 billion of tax rises, the largest in a generation with the bulk of the pain going to employers. Borrowing was more than expected which means that the extent of fiscal easing is higher, providing more of a boost to near term growth and supports the case for gradual easing of interest rates from the BoE. The pound was little changed, with GBPUSD dipping a touch to trade in the high 1.29’s once again capped at the 1.3025 area which is providing short term resistance.
  • CPI inflation for the euro area came out inline with expectations keeping the ECB on its current interest rate path. ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said that a “gradual approach to removing policy restriction remains appropriate.” Markets continue to expect the central bank to deliver steady reductions in interest rates in the coming policy meetings amid falling inflation and ongoing signs of a softening of the economy.

Economic Calendar

:
NZD - ANZ Business Confidence
:
AUD - Retail Sales m/m
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AUD - Building Approvals m/m
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AUD - Import Prices q/q
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AUD - Private Sector Credit m/m
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CNY - Manufacturing PMI
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CNY - Non-Manufacturing PMI
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GBP - MPC Member Breeden Speaks
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JPY - BOJ Policy Rate
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JPY - Monetary Policy Statement
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JPY - BOJ Outlook Report
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JPY - Housing Starts y/y
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JPY - BOJ Press Conference
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EUR - German Import Prices m/m
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EUR - German Retail Sales m/m
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EUR - French Prelim CPI m/m
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EUR - ECB Economic Bulletin
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EUR - Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
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EUR - Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
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EUR - CPI Flash Estimate y/y
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EUR - Italian Prelim CPI m/m
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EUR - Unemployment Rate
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GBP - 30-y Bond Auction
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USD - Challenger Job Cuts y/y
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CAD - GDP m/m
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USD - Core PCE Price Index m/m
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USD - Employment Cost Index q/q
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USD - Unemployment Claims
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USD - Personal Income m/m
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USD - Personal Spending m/m
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USD - Chicago PMI
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USD - Natural Gas Storage
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NZD - Building Consents m/m

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.83822 0.83745
gbp/usd 1.29594 1.29427
gbp/aud 1.97276 1.96878
gbp/nzd 2.17127 2.16535
usd/jpy 153.623 152.745
eur/usd 1.08591 1.0844
gbp/jpy 198.903 197.875
eur/cnh 7.74312 7.7276
usd/cnh 7.1349 7.12294
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 20218.7
DOW 42031
S&P 500 5782.16
BRENT CRUDE 72.4
WTI 68.96
GOLD 2782.06

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.