Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
November 1, 2024

  • Month end flows delivered some spooky price action yesterday with the US dollar receiving a boost against the pound. During the afternoon session UK gilts were heavily sold with some relating the previous days budget to the horrors witnessed two years ago from the Liz Truss disaster budget. GBPUSD was range bound for most of the European session until early US time when dollar buying helped push cable through support to push the pair as low as 1.2844 before recovering a touch. Concerns over the outlook for the UK economy are building after the fresh burdens were piled on UK businesses in the budget, and inflation fears are starting to build suggesting the path of UK interest rates remains uncertain. EURGBP found some support yesterday boosting the pair off it 0.83 lows to trade back into the low 0.84’s which translates to 1.1850 in GBPEUR terms.
  • It is all about the US Non-farm Payrolls this afternoon with markets expecting a further cooling with the print forecast to come in around 100,000. Hurricanes and bad weather will be attributed to the likely fall and markets will be paying close attention to any revisions from last month’s solid 254,000 print. The unemployment rate is expected to come in unchanged at 4.1% with Fed officials paying close attention to the data just days ahead of next week’s FOMC decision. It is unlikely that today’s release will change the markets perception of a pair of 25bp interest rate cuts at the two remaining policy meetings of the year.

Economic Calendar

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AUD - PPI q/q
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JPY - Final Manufacturing PMI
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CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI
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AUD - Commodity Prices y/y
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EUR - French Bank Holiday
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EUR - Italian Bank Holiday
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GBP - Nationwide HPI m/m
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CHF - CPI m/m
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CHF - Retail Sales y/y
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CHF - Manufacturing PMI
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GBP - Final Manufacturing PMI
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USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m
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USD - Non-Farm Employment Change
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USD - Unemployment Rate
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CAD - Manufacturing PMI
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USD - Final Manufacturing PMI
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USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI
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USD - ISM Manufacturing Prices
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USD - Construction Spending m/m
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USD - Wards Total Vehicle Sales

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.84428 0.84299
gbp/usd 1.29022 1.28843
gbp/aud 1.96579 1.95866
gbp/nzd 2.16142 2.1554
usd/jpy 152.651 151.87
eur/usd 1.08887 1.08707
gbp/jpy 196.782 195.868
eur/cnh 7.76029 7.7445
usd/cnh 7.13416 7.11652
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 19983.6
DOW 41832.7
S&P 500 5721.7
BRENT CRUDE 74.14
WTI 70.58
GOLD 2750.46

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.