Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
November 5, 2024

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The US Dollar is leveling off at 103.8, with the DXY index finding support at 103.60 and resistance around 104.60.  The greenback will likely stay within this range until a winner is called for the US election.

Today’s main focus for the US and the rest of the world is the US presidential election, with polls showing a tight contest between Harris and Trump.

The contest is especially close in key battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

With the chance of vote recounts, legal challenges, and election-related disorder, let’s see how this plays out over the next few days.

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EURUSD trades below 1.09 at the beginning of the session after reaching highs of 1.0910 on Monday.

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in at 46.0, coming close to forecasts of 45.9. Today, ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a keynote speech at the French Competition Authority’s 15th Anniversary Event in Paris.

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GBPUSD trades between 1.2950 and 1.30, staying within a tight channel as traders await the US election. Dollar sell-off due to election uncertainty has supported cable above the 1.2950 level, and will remain in the area until we learn more about the election results.

UK PMI data will be released today, with predictions matching the previous month’s figures. Composite PMI is predicted at 51.7, staying above the key 50 level and reflecting the UK private economy slightly expanding.

 

World News

 

The Reserve Bank of Australia announced that it left policy rates unchanged at 4.35%, coming in line with expectations.

The RBA sees inflation moving sustainably towards their target range, with RBA Governor Michele Bullock stating they are ready to act if the economy were to turn down more than expected. With that in mind, AUDUSD gained traction following the event and trading in the 0.6600 territory.

 

Economic Calendar

:
NZD - ANZ Commodity Prices m/m
:
GBP - BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
:
CNY - Caixin Services PMI
:
AUD - Cash Rate
:
AUD - RBA Monetary Policy Statement
:
AUD - RBA Rate Statement
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AUD - RBA Press Conference
:
CHF - Unemployment Rate
:
EUR - French Gov Budget Balance
:
EUR - French Industrial Production m/m
:
EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change
:
GBP - Final Services PMI
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EUR - Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
:
EUR - ECOFIN Meetings
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GBP - 10-y Bond Auction
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CAD - Trade Balance
:
USD - Trade Balance
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GBP - Monetary Policy Report Hearings
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USD - Final Services PMI
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USD - ISM Services PMI
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EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks
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USD - Presidential Election
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USD - Congressional Elections
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NZD - GDT Price Index
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USD - 10-y Bond Auction
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CAD - BOC Summary of Deliberations
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NZD - Employment Change q/q
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NZD - Unemployment Rate
:
NZD - Labor Cost Index q/q
:
JPY - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.83979 0.83875
gbp/usd 1.29817 1.29478
gbp/aud 1.96852 1.96168
gbp/nzd 2.17025 2.16356
usd/jpy 152.543 152.11
eur/usd 1.08907 1.08724
gbp/jpy 197.7 197.003
eur/cnh 7.74415 7.7244
usd/cnh 7.11736 7.10306
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 20029.3
DOW 41876.3
S&P 500 5726.46
BRENT CRUDE 75.21
WTI 71.72
GOLD 2733.15

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Matthew Hunter

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Matthew Hunter is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Matthew studied business strategy, focusing on international finance and political science. Matthew looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.