Donald Trump’s rising presidential chances have heavily impacted global markets, with US stock futures rising, treasury yields increasing, Bitcoin reaching record levels, and the US Dollar reaching heights of 105. The greenback has risen by 1.1% since the start of the day.
The ongoing US presidential election is slowly drawing to a close. Currently, Trump leads by 266 against Harris’s 219 electoral votes. With Trump winning the key state of Pennsylvania, and only a handful of states left to declare their votes, projections are favoring Trump to win.
ISM services PMI came in at 56, above predictions of 53.8. Although overshadowed by the elections, this data is key for the Fed as they plan interest rate decisions over the next couple of days. Currently, there is a 94.6% chance of a 25 bps cut.
EURUSD dropped by over 100 points since the start of the session, hitting a low of 1.0710 as US election results came through.
Yesterday, ECB President Lagarde’s speech focused on competition policy in a changing world. Lagarde emphasized the importance of competition policy and enforcement in Europe, pointing out that competition helps the economy grow, lowers prices, and improves monetary policy transmission.
Eurozone Services and Composite PMI data is being released today, with predictions in line with the previous month’s figures.
Cable dropped by 200 bps during the US presidential election results, hitting a low of 1.2859 at the beginning of the day.
UK PMI data was slightly better than expected. Composite PMI was 51.8, compared to 51.7 expectations. Services PMI improved to 52, higher than 51.8 expectations.
Tomorrow will be BoE’s next interest rate decision, where markets predict a 96.3% chance of a 25 bps cut.
