Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
November 12, 2024

  • Data released this morning showed that UK average earnings excluding bonuses climbed 4.8% in the three months through September, compared with a year ago, slightly down from the 4.9% recorded previously. Markets were expecting a print of 4.7%, so the data will likely spark further caution to the Bank of England ahead of the final MPC meeting of the year next month. Analysts remain split on a third interest cut of the year, and today’s report and the upcoming CPI release will be anxiously scrutinised for further signs of inflation. In a further concern to the central bank and the government, unemployment rose to 4.3% from 4% which was a larger increase than forecasted. The pound is a touch weaker after the data with GBPUSD remaining on the back foot slipping below its 200-day MA. Fears over the impact of the recent budget on the UK economy are pushing cable lower with the pair hovering above support. EURGBP finally broke key support at 0.83 yesterday – a level which had stubbornly held since the Brexit vote.
  • The US dollar remains all conquering with the dollar index gaining as the single currency lost further ground in a holiday impacted session yesterday. The DXY touched its highest level in over a year helping to push EURUSD through support, with the year low at 1.0601 potentially coming into play. The fall in the euro comes as German CPI inflation came out broadly in line with expectations ahead of the ZEW survey due later this morning. Germany continues to struggle and fears of fresh tariffs when President-elect Donald Trump comes in to power are helping to push the single currency closer to the psychological 1.05 area.

Economic Calendar

:
AUD - NAB Business Confidence
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JPY - Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y
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EUR - German Final CPI m/m
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GBP - Claimant Count Change
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GBP - Average Earnings Index 3m/y
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GBP - Unemployment Rate
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GBP - MPC Member Pill Speaks
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EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment
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EUR - ZEW Economic Sentiment
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USD - NFIB Small Business Index
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CAD - Building Permits m/m
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USD - Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations
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USD - FOMC Member Waller Speaks
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USD - RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism
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USD - FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
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USD - FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
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USD - Loan Officer Survey
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NZD - Visitor Arrivals m/m
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USD - FOMC Member Harker Speaks
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JPY - PPI y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.82986 0.8278
gbp/usd 1.28733 1.28129
gbp/aud 1.96116 1.95459
gbp/nzd 2.15823 2.15066
usd/jpy 154.06 153.405
eur/usd 1.06629 1.06294
gbp/jpy 198.053 196.951
eur/cnh 7.71527 7.6946
usd/cnh 7.25335 7.21957
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 21144.6
DOW 44273.1
S&P 500 6007.17
BRENT CRUDE 71.84
WTI 67.86
GOLD 2607

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.