Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
November 15, 2024

  • The US dollar remains well supported with data released yesterday showing headline PPI rising by 0.2% m/m in October and core PPI rising by 0.3%. When viewed with the previous days CPI the data suggests a small increase in headline PCE inflation. The gains in the greenback were also affirmed by somewhat hawkish comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who said that the “economy is not signalling a need for Fed to hurry rate cuts.” Markets continue to price another 25bp interest rate cut at the December FOMC policy meeting, however the outlook into 2025 remains increasingly uncertain. EURUSD continues to grind lower with traders witnessing plenty of sellers who helped push EURUSD to a fresh low of 1.0497 before recovering a touch. A significant break below 1.05 may trigger a swift move lower. US Retail Sales and the Empire Manufacturing Survey are on the docket this afternoon and analysts will be analysing the retail sales report for clues on consumer behaviour in the US.
  • Data released this morning showed that the UK economy cooled by more than analysts’ expectations in Q3 following a surprise contraction in September as businesses and households become increasingly nervous over the fiscal plans of the new labour government. GDP rose 0.1% compared with the previous quarter and below the 0.2% that markets were expecting. The economy shrank 0.1% in September alone, much worse than the 0.2% growth that was predicted. The pound continues to be influenced by what is happening to the greenback with GBPUSD still looking offered ahead of strong support at 1.2610. Next week’s CPI report is the next major event on the horizon where markets will look for clues on whether the BoE provides us with a pre-Christmas rate cut.

Economic Calendar

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CNY - New Home Prices m/m
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CNY - Industrial Production y/y
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CNY - Retail Sales y/y
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CNY - Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y
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CNY - NBS Press Conference
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CNY - Unemployment Rate
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JPY - Revised Industrial Production m/m
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JPY - Tertiary Industry Activity m/m
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EUR - German WPI m/m
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GBP - GDP m/m
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GBP - Prelim GDP q/q
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GBP - Construction Output m/m
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GBP - Goods Trade Balance
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GBP - Index of Services 3m/3m
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GBP - Industrial Production m/m
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GBP - Manufacturing Production m/m
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GBP - Prelim Business Investment q/q
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CNY - Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
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CHF - PPI m/m
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EUR - French Final CPI m/m
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EUR - Italian Trade Balance
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EUR - EU Economic Forecasts
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CAD - Manufacturing Sales m/m
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CAD - Wholesale Sales m/m
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USD - Core Retail Sales m/m
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USD - Retail Sales m/m
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USD - Empire State Manufacturing Index
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USD - Import Prices m/m
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USD - FOMC Member Collins Speaks
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GBP - NIESR GDP Estimate
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USD - Capacity Utilization Rate
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USD - Industrial Production m/m
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USD - Business Inventories m/m
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AUD - CB Leading Index m/m
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USD - FOMC Member Williams Speaks
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USD - FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks
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USD - FOMC Member Barkin Speaks

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.83263 0.83121
gbp/usd 1.26906 1.26563
gbp/aud 1.96383 1.95969
gbp/nzd 2.1672 2.16104
usd/jpy 156.747 156.033
eur/usd 1.05613 1.05234
gbp/jpy 198.442 197.802
eur/cnh 7.64177 7.6283
usd/cnh 7.25787 7.23284
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 20794.2
DOW 43607.6
S&P 500 5928.84
BRENT CRUDE 71.59
WTI 67.83
GOLD 2563.39

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.