Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
November 19, 2024

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The DXY index is trading at 106.30, down from the previous session due to profit-taking following its recent rally.

Downside risk for the greenback is limited, following Fed Chair Powell’s comments on the economy’s resilience, strong labour market, and steady inflationary pressures. He stated, “The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates.”

US housing data will be released today, focusing on Building Permits and Housing Starts, showing economic development in the housing sector.

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EURUSD is trading below 1.06 at the start of the day, with a positive bias as the US dollar follows a downward correction with profit-taking following the recent rally.

ECB President Christine spoke on Monday about Europe’s need to consolidate its resources in defense and climate areas, along with Europe falling behind on innovation and productivity compared to the US and China.

Today the October HICP data will be released, a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Prior HICP YoY is 2.9%, with expectations of 3.5%. Prior HICP MoM is 0.1%, with expectations of 0.7%.

EURGBP is trading flat around 0.8355 as investors wait for HICP data. The rising chance for more aggressive rate cuts by the ECB might drag the euro against the pound, but today’s data will be key to any change. If the report shows hotter inflation, this would dampen the chance of an ECB jumbo cut in December and lift the currency.

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Cable hovers below 1.2690 as a softer US dollar consolidates losses, with upside resistance at 1.2700.

Later today is the BoE Monetary Policy Report Hearings, where BoE Governor Andrew Bailey and MPC members will respond to questions from the UK Treasury Select Committee. Market pricers will watch for any remarks concerning a rate cut in December.

 

World News

 

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil is currently hosting the G20 Summit. Leaders from the main economic powers are meeting to discuss key issues in the global economy.

UK PM Keir Starmer has made the news headlines during this meeting by openly seeking a strong relationship with China and increasing trade ties. This could take the UK back to the “Golden Era” of Chinese-British relations last seen during David Cameron’s PM spell after 2010.

 

 

Economic Calendar

:
AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
:
CHF - Trade Balance
:
EUR - Current Account
:
EUR - Final Core CPI y/y
:
EUR - Final CPI y/y
:
GBP - Monetary Policy Report Hearings
:
EUR - German Buba Monthly Report
:
CAD - CPI m/m
:
CAD - Median CPI y/y
:
CAD - Trimmed CPI y/y
:
CAD - Common CPI y/y
:
CAD - Core CPI m/m
:
USD - Building Permits
:
USD - Housing Starts
:
NZD - GDT Price Index
:
All - G20 Meetings
:
USD - FOMC Member Schmid Speaks
:
AUD - MI Leading Index m/m
:
JPY - Trade Balance

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.83618 0.83452
gbp/usd 1.26894 1.26629
gbp/aud 1.95005 1.94487
gbp/nzd 2.15512 2.14903
usd/jpy 154.653 153.949
eur/usd 1.06009 1.05744
gbp/jpy 196.03 195.213
eur/cnh 7.66829 7.6527
usd/cnh 7.24628 7.22272
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 20601.3
DOW 43493.2
S&P 500 5911.91
BRENT CRUDE 73.02
WTI 68.97
GOLD 2621.09

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Matthew Hunter

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Matthew Hunter is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Matthew studied business strategy, focusing on international finance and political science. Matthew looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.