- November saw the US dollar rally against its peers as the US election and the Trump trade dominate the markets attention. The greenback has gained around 2% since the election however as we enter December, the outlook looks less certain as the dollar has posted losses in eight of the last ten Decembers with year-end rebalancing flows typically meaning that investors sell dollars for riskier assets. The labor market is back in focus this week after markets largely ignored last month’s weak payroll print amidst the excitement of the election. Tuesday sees the release of the JOLTs job openings data with weekly claims out on Thursday and Non-farm Payrolls on Friday. October’s print came in at a hugely disappointing 12k and markets expect a post hurricane print closer to the recent average at around 160k. This week also sees the release of the ISM Services Index and the Fed’s Beige Book. The December Beige Book is expected to show a post-election increase in both consumer and business sentiment.
- It is a very quiet week for data from the UK and EU with no significant UK data in the coming days. The only significant data print this week from the EU comes on Friday, with the release of German Industrial Production for October. The German economy remains soft, and Friday’s print is likely to show a further decline which will further weigh on GDP and the outlook for Europe’s largest economy. The single currency remains weak, trading around 1.05 this morning, with 1.06 offering decent resistance and support seen at 1.04 ahead of last month’s low of 1.0335.
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