Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
December 4, 2024

  • The first piece of this week’s US labor market puzzle dropped into place yesterday with the JOLTs data coming in better than expected. The headline number of job openings jumped to 7.74 million in October versus a downwardly revised 7.37 million in the previous month and goes against recent employment data. Commentators expressed caution in the data as October’s hurricanes are partly to blame for recent soft reports as the attention today shifts to the ADP Private payroll report ahead of Friday’s Non-farm Payroll release. Yesterday’s print did little to impact Fed pricing ahead of the December policy meeting, with markets still undecided about a cut or pause. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is on the wires later today and his San Francisco colleague Mary Daly was as non-comital as recent Fed-speak last night when commenting about rate cuts. She said, “Whether it’ll be in December or some time later, that’s a question we’ll have a chance to debate and discuss in our next meeting, but the point is we have to keep policy moving down to accommodate the economy.”
  • The single currency is holding up reasonably well as the French government faces a no-confidence motion today that could topple the government and throw the euro area’s second largest economy into political turmoil. Lawmakers will debate the motion towards the end of the European trading day, with the voting to start shortly after. The motion comes after PM Michel Barnier used a constitutional mechanism to force through an unpopular budget bill. EURUSD is once again hovering around the pivotal 1.05 area as markets remain increasingly negative on the outlook for the euro area.

Economic Calendar

:
NZD - ANZ Commodity Prices m/m
:
AUD - GDP q/q
:
NZD - RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
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CNY - Caixin Services PMI
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EUR - French Gov Budget Balance
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EUR - Spanish Services PMI
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EUR - Italian Services PMI
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EUR - French Final Services PMI
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EUR - German Final Services PMI
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EUR - Final Services PMI
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GBP - BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
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GBP - Final Services PMI
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EUR - PPI m/m
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EUR - German 10-y Bond Auction
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USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
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CAD - Labor Productivity q/q
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EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks
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USD - FOMC Member Musalem Speaks
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USD - Final Services PMI
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USD - ISM Services PMI
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USD - Factory Orders m/m
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USD - Crude Oil Inventories
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EUR - German Buba President Nagel Speaks
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USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks
:
USD - Beige Book

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.82952 0.82849
gbp/usd 1.27014 1.26515
gbp/aud 1.97446 1.95375
gbp/nzd 2.16968 2.15422
usd/jpy 150.172 149.522
eur/usd 1.05289 1.04877
gbp/jpy 190.575 189.352
eur/cnh 7.67273 7.6464
usd/cnh 7.3064 7.27342
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 21322.4
DOW 44863.1
S&P 500 6063.22
BRENT CRUDE 73.8
WTI 70.15
GOLD 2648.49

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.