Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
December 6, 2024

  • The US dollar fell against its G10 peers yesterday as investors unwound short EUR positions ahead of today’s Non-farm Payroll release. Initial Jobless claims came in at 224k (against consensus of 215k) overall keeping the trend in pre-NFP labor market data positive along with JOLTs, ADP and ISM Services readings this week. Markets expect today’s print to come in around 200k after October’s disappointing reading of 12k. Last months below expectations number was partly down to the Boeing strike and Hurricane Milton, so markets are looking for a sharp rebound this afternoon. Investors largely ignored last month’s print writing it off as a one-off weather-related incident, so a further soft release will suggest a more negative outlook. Today’s release and the upcoming inflation report will be key in the FOMC decision whether to cut or hold at the final policy meeting of the year.
  • EURUSD enjoyed a rally yesterday and short positions were unwound as traders took stock before today’s labor market report. The pair had hovered between 1.05 and 1.0550 for most of the European session before edging higher to bounce off resistance at 1.0590. Consolidation and range trading are expected this morning as we await the 1.30pm UK time release.
  • The pound has been quiet this week as markets focused on the dollar and geopolitical events in France and South Korea. GBPUSD is a touch higher as the greenback lost ground with the pair content to range trade between 1.2650 and 1.2750. We have another quiet week for data coming up, however things ramp up the following week with a plethora of data and the final MPC meeting of 2024 to look forward to.

Economic Calendar

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JPY - Leading Indicators
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EUR - German Industrial Production m/m
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EUR - German Trade Balance
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GBP - Halifax HPI m/m
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EUR - French Trade Balance
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CHF - Foreign Currency Reserves
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EUR - Final Employment Change q/q
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EUR - Italian Retail Sales m/m
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EUR - Revised GDP q/q
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CAD - Employment Change
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CAD - Unemployment Rate
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USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m
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USD - Non-Farm Employment Change
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USD - Unemployment Rate
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USD - FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
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USD - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
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USD - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
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CAD - Ivey PMI
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USD - FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks
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USD - FOMC Member Hammack Speaks
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USD - FOMC Member Daly Speaks
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USD - Consumer Credit m/m

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.82977 0.82919
gbp/usd 0.78491 0.78364
gbp/aud 1.98456 1.97787
gbp/nzd 2.17648 2.16751
usd/jpy 150.275 149.765
eur/usd 0.94642 0.94457
gbp/jpy 191.685 190.918
eur/cnh 7.68903 7.6729
usd/cnh 7.27338 7.2556
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 21445.1
DOW 44757.8
S&P 500 6076.67
BRENT CRUDE 72.09
WTI 68.4
GOLD 2638.67

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.