- The US dollar fell against its G10 peers yesterday as investors unwound short EUR positions ahead of today’s Non-farm Payroll release. Initial Jobless claims came in at 224k (against consensus of 215k) overall keeping the trend in pre-NFP labor market data positive along with JOLTs, ADP and ISM Services readings this week. Markets expect today’s print to come in around 200k after October’s disappointing reading of 12k. Last months below expectations number was partly down to the Boeing strike and Hurricane Milton, so markets are looking for a sharp rebound this afternoon. Investors largely ignored last month’s print writing it off as a one-off weather-related incident, so a further soft release will suggest a more negative outlook. Today’s release and the upcoming inflation report will be key in the FOMC decision whether to cut or hold at the final policy meeting of the year.
- EURUSD enjoyed a rally yesterday and short positions were unwound as traders took stock before today’s labor market report. The pair had hovered between 1.05 and 1.0550 for most of the European session before edging higher to bounce off resistance at 1.0590. Consolidation and range trading are expected this morning as we await the 1.30pm UK time release.
- The pound has been quiet this week as markets focused on the dollar and geopolitical events in France and South Korea. GBPUSD is a touch higher as the greenback lost ground with the pair content to range trade between 1.2650 and 1.2750. We have another quiet week for data coming up, however things ramp up the following week with a plethora of data and the final MPC meeting of 2024 to look forward to.
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