Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
December 13, 2024

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The US dollar made gains after the release of US PPI data, boosting the DXY index above 107.00. Headline PPI accelerated to 3%, faster than estimates and the prior release of 2.6%. Core PPI rose by 3.4%, faster than 3.2% estimates and 3.1% prior.

Jobless claims came in higher at 242K compared to 220K expected and 225K prior.

After this week’s data, markets have heavily priced in a 25bps cut at next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting at 95.9%, reducing the rate to 4.25-4.5%.

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The ECB followed market expectations and trimmed interest rates by 25 bps to 3.00%. This led to a clear break in the 1.0500 level for the single currency, ending the pair currently trading at 1.0460.

The ECB Monetary policy statement had policymakers remove the word “restrictive” when discussing monetary policy, and noted that “most measures of underlying inflation suggest that it will settle at around 2% target on a sustained basis.”

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Cable depreciated for a third consecutive day, breaching the 1.2700 level and currently trading at 1.2660 as US PPI data rose faster than expected and supported the US dollar.

Depreciation was further caused by potential tariff threats from Trump’s administration that boosted the US dollar against all major peers and created a headwind for the risk-sensitive pound.

UK data today will include monthly GDP and October’s factory data.

 

Economic Calendar

:
GBP - GfK Consumer Confidence
:
AUD - RBA Assist Gov Hunter Speaks
:
JPY - Revised Industrial Production m/m
:
EUR - German Trade Balance
:
EUR - German WPI m/m
:
GBP - GDP m/m
:
GBP - Construction Output m/m
:
GBP - Goods Trade Balance
:
GBP - Index of Services 3m/3m
:
GBP - Industrial Production m/m
:
GBP - Manufacturing Production m/m
:
EUR - French Final CPI m/m
:
GBP - Consumer Inflation Expectations
:
CNY - New Loans
:
CNY - M2 Money Supply y/y
:
All - G7 Meetings
:
EUR - Industrial Production m/m
:
EUR - German Buba Monthly Report
:
GBP - NIESR GDP Estimate
:
CAD - Capacity Utilization Rate
:
CAD - Manufacturing Sales m/m
:
CAD - Wholesale Sales m/m
:
USD - Import Prices m/m

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.828 0.82599
gbp/usd 1.2679 1.26316
gbp/aud 1.99288 1.98523
gbp/nzd 2.19918 2.19172
usd/jpy 153.086 152.55
eur/usd 1.04806 1.04551
gbp/jpy 193.862 192.97
eur/cnh 7.62843 7.6138
usd/cnh 7.28977 7.27161
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 21713.3
DOW 43916.6
S&P 500 6061.68
BRENT CRUDE 73.42
WTI 70.06
GOLD 2686.98

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Matthew Hunter

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Matthew Hunter is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Matthew studied business strategy, focusing on international finance and political science. Matthew looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.