Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
December 16, 2024

  • Tis the season to hold central bank meetings, with several key policy meetings in the final full week before markets wind down for Christmas. The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday, with most analysts expecting policymakers to deliver a final 25bp cut of the year to 4.25%-4.50%. With CPI and PPI already known, markets will pay close attention to comments from Chairman Powell to see if he can provide any guidance to the outlook for 2025. Markets are pricing in fewer cuts going forward as there remains an upside risk to inflation. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, we look forward to the release of the Empire Manufacturing report today and Retail Sales tomorrow. GDP and weekly jobless claims are out on Thursday, and Friday sees the release of PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation report. A soft print is expected supported by solid wage income and improved optimism about the future.
  •  It is a busy week for UK data, kicking off with the release of the Composite PMI survey this morning which is expected to rise slightly. UK labour market data is out on Tuesday with markets expecting a small tick up in pay growth. November’s CPI print is released on Wednesday, with a slight acceleration expected, driven by faster core goods price inflation. The Bank of England hold their final policy meeting of 2024 on Thursday and are expected to hold interest rates unchanged and signal that it intends to ease gradually throughout 2025. Retail Sales are released on Friday, with a rebound expected as consumers took advantage of Black Friday deals.
  • Euro zone PMIs are out today with the German Ifo survey due tomorrow and the final print of CPI inflation out on Wednesday. A small uptick in November’s inflation print is likely, although that was expected by the ECB, with the outlook remaining one of general disinflation and weak growth.

Economic Calendar

:
GBP - Rightmove HPI m/m
:
JPY - Flash Manufacturing PMI
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CNY - New Home Prices m/m
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CNY - Industrial Production y/y
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CNY - Retail Sales y/y
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CNY - Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y
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CNY - NBS Press Conference
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CNY - Unemployment Rate
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JPY - Tertiary Industry Activity m/m
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CHF - PPI m/m
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EUR - French Flash Manufacturing PMI
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EUR - French Flash Services PMI
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EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks
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EUR - German Flash Manufacturing PMI
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EUR - German Flash Services PMI
:
EUR - Flash Manufacturing PMI
:
EUR - Flash Services PMI
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GBP - Flash Manufacturing PMI
:
GBP - Flash Services PMI
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CAD - Housing Starts
:
USD - Empire State Manufacturing Index
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USD - Flash Manufacturing PMI
:
USD - Flash Services PMI
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CAD - BOC Gov Macklem Speaks
:
AUD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.83275 0.83026
gbp/usd 1.26394 1.26061
gbp/aud 1.98619 1.97787
gbp/nzd 2.19033 2.18136
usd/jpy 153.972 153.319
eur/usd 1.0523 1.0482
gbp/jpy 194.565 193.506
eur/cnh 7.66675 7.63075
usd/cnh 7.28895 7.27259
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 21786.3
DOW 43853
S&P 500 6054.03
BRENT CRUDE 74.11
WTI 70.81
GOLD 2652.58

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.