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Market Watch

July 26, 2021

Daily Insight

AUDUSD

Open today 0.7385

Yesterday’s Range 0.7331 / 0.7390

NZDUSD

Open today 0.6979

Yesterday’s Range 0.6948 / 0.7010

AUDEUR

Yesterday’s Range 0.6227 / 0.6265

AUDCNH

Yesterday’s Range 4.7555 / 4.7925

AUDNZD

Yesterday’s Range 1.0540 / 1.0572

 

After slipping lower from the Asia open yesterday, the AUDUSD has recovered and consolidated small gains, but still a close below 0.74-cents. Whilst the he pair is neutral at current levels, it is still at risk of slipping lower with shorter term MA's below longer indicators. Despite the weaker US-dollar position overnight the AUD continues to remain of lesser interest amongst most counterparts according to the technicals. RBA Gov Debelle is scheduled to speak today and amidst a covid resurgence and subsequent lockdowns, is unlikely to deliver much optimism in his, or the Bank's, forward guidance.

Wall Street indices managed to eke out modest gains for the session and traded record highs yet again, albeit in choppy trade. This was in contrast to losses experienced in Asia, ex-Japan, yesterday, where investor concerns linger over China government regulations and marked the Shenzhen and Shanghai composites lower. Australian shares are set to open a tad stronger today, bouyed by better Iron Ore and Copper prices, but appetite is still likely to be hampered by ongoing lockdowns in the major cities.

Gold prices have turned lower as investors become cautious ahead of the Fed policy meeting this week.

Copper prices traded higher as floods in China sparked hopes for demand as inventories were already falling. Iron Ore futures also picked on the back of a recovery in steel margins in China.

Crude Oil prices reversed earlier losses in the session as the market dwelled on tighter supply prevailing into the end of the year.

trends*

AUD   USD
AUD
 / 
USD
NZD   USD
NZD
 / 
USD
AUD   NZD
AUD
 / 
NZD
USD   JPY
USD
 / 
JPY
USD   CNH
USD
 / 
CNH

economic calendar

Tuesday - 27

7:30 AM
JPY - BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
12:35 PM
AUD - RBA Deputy Gov Debelle Speaks
2:00 PM
USD - CB Consumer Confidence

Wednesday - 28

1:30 AM
AUD - CPI q/q
1:30 AM
AUD - Trimmed Mean CPI q/q
12:30 PM
CAD - CPI m/m
12:30 PM
CAD - Trimmed CPI y/y
12:30 PM
CAD - Median CPI y/y
12:30 PM
CAD - Common CPI y/y
2:30 PM
USD - Crude Oil Inventories
6:00 PM
USD - FOMC Statement
6:00 PM
USD - Federal Funds Rate
6:30 PM
USD - FOMC Press Conference

Thursday - 29

12:30 PM
USD - Unemployment Claims
12:30 PM
USD - Advance GDP q/q
12:30 PM
USD - Advance GDP Price Index q/q
2:00 PM
USD - Pending Home Sales m/m

Friday - 30

8:00 AM
EUR - German Prelim GDP q/q
12:30 PM
CAD - GDP m/m
12:30 PM
USD - Core PCE Price Index m/m
1:45 PM
USD - Chicago PMI
2:00 PM
USD - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

Saturday - 31

1:00 AM
CNY - Manufacturing PMI

Market Indicators

HIGH

LOW

AUD/USD

0.74
0.7358

NZD/USD

0.6991
0.6961

AUD/NZD

0.0002
0.0001

USD/JPY

110.58
110.1

USD/CHF

0.9221
0.9187

USD/CNH

6.4869
6.4702

USD/CAD

1.2607
1.2555

EUR/USD

1.1787
1.1755

GBP/USD

1.378
1.3721

S&P/ASX 100

S&P/ASX 200

GOLD

BRENT OIL

COPPER ORE

IRON ORE

Market Watch

July 25, 2021

Daily Insight

Market Update

AUDUSD

Open today 0.7375

Yesterday’s Range 0.7357 / 0.7403

 

NZDUSD

Open today 0.6979

Yesterday’s Range 0.6958 / 0.6992

 

AUDEUR

Yesterday’s Range 0.6251 / 0.6286

 

AUDCNH

Yesterday’s Range 4.7658 / 4.7854

 

AUDNZD

Yesterday’s Range 1.0545 / 1.0616

 

 

The AUDUSD opens with a downside bias outlook for the week as it follows the correction in Iron Ore and greater Sydney enters its second week of a rigid lockdown. Not much local economic news today for Australia keeps the attention on the US-dollar and what to expect from the FOMC meeting later this week. Initially it looks like day traders will sell into any rallies to 0.7390 with targets back below 0.73-cents.

 

Wall Street indices all marked gains into the weekend as upbeat corporate earnings and hints of economic revival continues to fuel investor appetite. Australian shares are set to open higher today , tracking Wall Street gains but are likely to be hampered by ongoing lockdowns in the major cities.

 

Gold prices settled lower as the dollar strengthened and firmer US Treasury yields.

 

Copper prices continue their gains as the economic recovery boosts optimism for demand.

 

Crude Oil prices crept higher for the week as the market expects tighter supply prevailing into the end of the year.

trends*

AUD   USD
AUD
 / 
USD
NZD   USD
NZD
 / 
USD
AUD   NZD
AUD
 / 
NZD
USD   JPY
USD
 / 
JPY
USD   CNH
USD
 / 
CNH

economic calendar

Monday - 26

8:00 AM
EUR - German ifo Business Climate
11:00 AM
GBP - MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks

Tuesday - 27

7:30 AM
JPY - BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
12:35 PM
AUD - RBA Deputy Gov Debelle Speaks
2:00 PM
USD - CB Consumer Confidence

Wednesday - 28

1:30 AM
AUD - CPI q/q
1:30 AM
AUD - Trimmed Mean CPI q/q
12:30 PM
CAD - CPI m/m
12:30 PM
CAD - Trimmed CPI y/y
12:30 PM
CAD - Median CPI y/y
12:30 PM
CAD - Common CPI y/y
2:30 PM
USD - Crude Oil Inventories
6:00 PM
USD - FOMC Statement
6:00 PM
USD - Federal Funds Rate
6:30 PM
USD - FOMC Press Conference

Thursday - 29

12:30 PM
USD - Unemployment Claims
12:30 PM
USD - Advance GDP q/q
12:30 PM
USD - Advance GDP Price Index q/q
2:00 PM
USD - Pending Home Sales m/m

Friday - 30

8:00 AM
EUR - German Prelim GDP q/q
12:30 PM
CAD - GDP m/m
12:30 PM
USD - Core PCE Price Index m/m
1:45 PM
USD - Chicago PMI
2:00 PM
USD - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

Saturday - 31

1:00 AM
CNY - Manufacturing PMI

Market Indicators

HIGH

LOW

AUD/USD

0.0001
0.0001

NZD/USD

-0.0004
-0.0004

AUD/NZD

0.0002
0.0001

USD/JPY

-0.0266
-0.0269

USD/CHF

-0.0006
-0.0007

USD/CNH

0.031
0.0297

USD/CAD

1.2607
1.2555

EUR/USD

0.0007
0.0007

GBP/USD

1.378
1.3721

S&P/ASX 100

S&P/ASX 200

GOLD

BRENT OIL

COPPER ORE

IRON ORE

Market Watch

July 22, 2021

Daily Insight

Market Update

Both the Aussie and the Kiwi moved slightly higher today, despite a drop in the services sector with Manufacturing PMI down to 56.8 from a 58.6 the previous month.  Flash Services PMI came in significantly lower at 44.2 from a previous 56.8.  Increased COVID infections is what is looming over global markets with New South Wales recording 124 cases on Thursday, up from 110 the day prior.  This pace of new infections will very likely extend lockdowns.  It is estimated that the lockdowns are costing A$300 million per day, according to the Treasury.

The U.S. dollar traded higher today against most major currencies, albeit in a fairly quieter session after reaching an over 3 month high.  Equity markets closed fairly flat today after a very strong previous two days.  

Gold prices climbed as yields come down in the U.S. on the release of jobless claims, an unexpected rise, stronger then expected at 419,000 for the week ending July 17, much higher then the 350,000 addition expected.  

trends*

USD   JPY
USD
 / 
JPY
EUR   USD
EUR
 / 
USD
EUR   GBP
EUR
 / 
GBP
GBP   USD
GBP
 / 
USD
USD   CHF
USD
 / 
CHF
AUD   USD
AUD
 / 
USD
USD   CAD
USD
 / 
CAD
USD   MXN
USD
 / 
MXN

economic calendar

Sunday - 25

3:45 pm
NZD - TRADE BALANCE
5:30 pm
JPY - FLASH MANUFACTURING PMI
10:00 pm
JPY - BOJ CORE CPI y/y

Monday - 26

7:00 am
USD - NEW HOME SALES

Tuesday - 27

12:30 am
JPY - BOJ GOV KURODA SPEAKS
5:30 am
USD - CORE DURABLE GOODS ORDERS m/m
5:30 am
USD - DURABLE GOOD ORDERS m/m
5:35 am
AUD - RBA DEPUTY GOV DEBELLE SPEAKS
7:00 am
USD - CB CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
7:00 am
USD - RICHMOND MANUFACTURING INDEX
4:50 pm
JPY - BOJ SUMMARY OF OPINIONS
6:30 pm
AUD - CPI q/q
6:30 pm
AUD - TRIMMED MEAN CPI q/q

Market Indicators

HIGH

LOW

AUD/USD

0.7397
0.7343

NZD/USD

0.6985
0.6948

AUD/NZD

1.0599
1.0551

EUR/AUD

1.6054
1.5932

EUR/USD

1.183
1.1758

USD/CNH

6.478
6.4624

USD/JPY

110.35
110.02

USD/CAD

1.2594
1.2529

GBP/USD

1.3786
1.3691

AUD/CNH

4.7835
4.7486

ASX100

6113.6

ASX200

7392.3

GOLD

1807.7

BRENT OIL

73.33

COPPER ORE

434.8

IRON ORE

208.85

Market Watch

July 21, 2021

Daily Insight

Market Update - 22nd July 2021

The Aussie dollar is slowly moving back from the 8 month lows seen yesterday, breaking through the 0.73 level.  COVID-19 lockdowns are still in place in Australia and other states also joining.  Retail Sales also came in lower than expected, disappointing the market with a fall of 1.8% month over month as it was expected to gain 0.7%.  The Westpac leading index also fell to 0.07% versus an upwardly revised 0.05%.  This index is designed to forecast the direction of the economy.  With data being released has been weaker than expected, even though it is very likely brought on by the COVID lockdowns, it would seem that the Aussie may be hit with a continued down trend.   With vaccination rates staying low in Australia, this can only prolong the lockdowns and continue to drag down its economy.  

The U.S. stock market had it's second day of positive territory with the Dow up 286 points and the S&P up 0.82%, 35.63 points.  Global equities should follow suit amidst all the negative COVID news.  

The New Zealand dollar is trading higher today, with a more positive outlook in the short term.  New Zealand remains largely free of community-based infections, giving them an edge up versus Australia when it comes to economic growth without any lockdowns, at the moment.  Also helping the Kiwi fundamentally is the RBNZ's decision to terminate its Large Scale Asset Purchase program scheduled for July 23rd, which priced in a rate hike for New Zealand.  


trends*

AUD   USD
AUD
 / 
USD
NZD   USD
NZD
 / 
USD
AUD   NZD
AUD
 / 
NZD
USD   JPY
USD
 / 
JPY
USD   CHF
USD
 / 
CHF
USD   CNH
USD
 / 
CNH
USD   CAD
USD
 / 
CAD
EUR   USD
EUR
 / 
USD
GBP   USD
GBP
 / 
USD

economic calendar

Monday - 01

8:30 AM
GBP - MPC Member Broadbent Speaks
11:45 AM
EUR - Monetary Policy Statement
11:45 AM
EUR - Main Refinancing Rate
12:30 PM
USD - Unemployment Claims
12:30 PM
EUR - ECB Press Conference

Monday - 01

6:00 AM
GBP - Retail Sales m/m
7:15 AM
EUR - French Flash Manufacturing PMI
7:15 AM
EUR - French Flash Services PMI
7:30 AM
EUR - German Flash Manufacturing PMI
7:30 AM
EUR - German Flash Services PMI
8:00 AM
EUR - Flash Manufacturing PMI
8:00 AM
EUR - Flash Services PMI
8:30 AM
GBP - Flash Services PMI
8:30 AM
GBP - Flash Manufacturing PMI
12:30 PM
CAD - Retail Sales m/m
12:30 PM
CAD - Core Retail Sales m/m
1:45 PM
USD - Flash Manufacturing PMI
1:45 PM
USD - Flash Services PMI

Market Indicators

HIGH

LOW

AUD/USD

0.7357
0.7298

NZD/USD

0.6954
0.6878

AUD/NZD

1.0603
1.0546

USD/JPY

109.95
109.34

USD/CHF

0.9232
0.9174

USD/CNH

6.4963
6.4801

USD/CAD

1.2786
1.2673

EUR/USD

1.1804
1.1757

GBP/USD

1.3689
1.3573

S&P/ASX 100

6049.3

S&P/ASX 200

7308.72

GOLD

1807.8

BRENT OIL

72.23

COPPER ORE

428.25

IRON ORE

208.85

Market Watch

July 20, 2021

Daily Insight

Market Update - 21st July 2021

NAB Quarterly Business confidence is expected to be released today, and is highly anticipated to see the effect amid all the COVID-19 lockdowns in NSW and Victoria.  June’s result fell significantly to 11 from 20 the prior month.  Business Confidence has definitely fallen across the board and the market is awaiting it’s release today, to point the AUD on it’s continued path lower below 0.73 or above 0.7350. 

The Kiwi is also being hit downward, following suit with the Aussie on COVID-19 concerns.  It is trading little changed at 0.6916, however, after it fell 0.4% the previous day. 

 The US dollar gained significant ground against most of the G10 currencies, on higher U.S. Treasury yields after days of falling below 1.13% with  COVID-19 concerns being the main driver pulling yields lower.  The Dow Jones recovered from previous day losses to gain nearly 550 points after bargain hunters pushed U.S. equities to the largest gain since March.   

trends*

AUD   USD
AUD
 / 
USD
NZD   USD
NZD
 / 
USD
AUD   NZD
AUD
 / 
NZD
USD   JPY
USD
 / 
JPY
USD   CHF
USD
 / 
CHF
USD   CNH
USD
 / 
CNH
USD   CAD
USD
 / 
CAD
EUR   USD
EUR
 / 
USD
GBP   USD
GBP
 / 
USD

economic calendar

Monday - 01

1:30 AM
AUD - Retail Sales m/m
2:30 PM
USD - Crude Oil Inventories

Monday - 01

8:30 AM
GBP - MPC Member Broadbent Speaks
11:45 AM
EUR - Monetary Policy Statement
11:45 AM
EUR - Main Refinancing Rate
12:30 PM
USD - Unemployment Claims
12:30 PM
EUR - ECB Press Conference

Monday - 01

6:00 AM
GBP - Retail Sales m/m
8:00 AM
EUR - Flash Manufacturing PMI
8:30 AM
GBP - Flash Manufacturing PMI
12:30 PM
CAD - Retail Sales m/m
12:30 PM
CAD - Core Retail Sales m/m
1:45 PM
USD - Flash Manufacturing PMI
1:45 PM
USD - Flash Services PMI

Market Indicators

HIGH

LOW

AUD/USD

0.7407
0.7323

NZD/USD

0.7011
0.6916

AUD/NZD

0.0002
0.0001

USD/JPY

110.09
109.08

AUD/CNH

4.772
4.7386

USD/CNH

6.4981
6.4726

USD/CAD

1.2807
1.2605

EUR/USD

1.1824
1.1765

GBP/USD

1.3785
1.3656

S&P/ASX 100

6002.8

S&P/ASX 200

7252.23

GOLD

1809.7

BRENT OIL

69.35

COPPER ORE

427.35

IRON ORE

211.39

*The arrows indicate how the base currency performed against the counter currency overnight. This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.