- The UK Labour Party has won the general election in a landslide victory for Sir Keir Starmer putting him in to 10 Downing Street as Prime Minister. Exit polls forecast a huge parliamentary victory, with the Labour Party passing the key 326 seats for a majority just before 5am this morning. Votes are still being counted and the final results will not be known for a few hours, but predictions suggest that Starmer’s party is on course to win 410 of the 650 seats in Westminster, which is the most since Tony Blair’s 1997 victory. The pound has posted gains against the greenback, in thin liquidity after yesterday’s US holiday. GBPUSD rallied to an overnight high of 1.2778 and continues to consolidate just below that level at the time of writing. EURGBP remains range bound, currently below the psychological 0.85 level which has been a pivotal mark.
- EURUSD currently sits just above 1.08 with traders remaining cautious ahead of this afternoon US labor market data and this weekend’s French elections. Projections currently put Marine Le Pen’s National Rally short of an overall majority, with the far-right group on course to win around 200 to 230 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly. 1.0820 remains a key level for EURUSD and has acted as stubborn resistance this week, so a significant breach of this level is required to test the next key level at 1.0870.
- US traders return from their Independence Day holiday today, eagerly anticipating this afternoon’s June Non-farm Payroll release. Markets expect a print of around 190k and a moderately higher print could tempt a dollar rally. This morning there are rumours of a softer print, and the greenback has sold off a touch. A release of between 150-170 would be a significant drop and should see the dollar sold off substantially.
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