Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
October 4, 2024

  • It is the first Friday of the month, and that can only mean one thing – it’s Non-farm Payroll Day. Markets eagerly anticipate these days, with traders and investors huddled over screens at 1.30pm UK time, however today’s print has largely been overshadowed by tensions in the Middle East. We continue to seek clues on the size of the next cut from the Fed, however recent rhetoric from Chairman Powell suggests that the FOMC is likely to reduce the size of its next cut to 25bp when they announce the latest policy change on 7 November. Markets are expecting an NFP print of 150k for September, a tad higher than the 142k recorded for August. The labor market continues to cool, and analysts will also be paying attention to the unemployment rate and any revisions.
  • EURUSD is treading water ahead of this afternoon’s data release, with the pair at the bottom of its recent range after failing to hold above 1.12. There is considerable resistance around 1.1205 and bids are seen between 1.0990 and 1.10. We have several ECB officials speaking throughout the day, although they are unlikely to sway the markets view of the timing and pace of ECB moves over the remainder of the year.
  • BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill is also on the wires later today, and investors will be waiting to see if he backs up dovish comments made by Governor Bailey earlier this week. However, it is worth remembering that Pill was one of the dissenters at the August meeting, voting to hold rates unchanged, whilst Bailey voted with the majority of the MPC to cut by 25bp.

Economic Calendar

:
CNY - Bank Holiday
:
CHF - Unemployment Rate
:
EUR - French Industrial Production m/m
:
GBP - MPC Member Pill Speaks
:
GBP - Construction PMI
:
GBP - Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q
:
EUR - Italian Retail Sales m/m
:
USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m
:
USD - Non-Farm Employment Change
:
USD - Unemployment Rate
:
USD - FOMC Member Williams Speaks
:
CAD - Ivey PMI
:
USD - FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.84061 0.83964
gbp/usd 1.31409 1.3123
gbp/aud 1.9192 1.91601
gbp/nzd 2.11501 2.11106
usd/jpy 146.933 145.917
eur/usd 1.10394 1.10251
gbp/jpy 192.889 191.733
eur/cnh 7.79119 7.775
usd/cnh 7.0646 7.04455
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 19852.6
DOW 42051
S&P 500 5712.14
BRENT CRUDE 77.56
WTI 73.65
GOLD 2665.66

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.