- It is the first Friday of the month, and that can only mean one thing – it’s Non-farm Payroll Day. Markets eagerly anticipate these days, with traders and investors huddled over screens at 1.30pm UK time, however today’s print has largely been overshadowed by tensions in the Middle East. We continue to seek clues on the size of the next cut from the Fed, however recent rhetoric from Chairman Powell suggests that the FOMC is likely to reduce the size of its next cut to 25bp when they announce the latest policy change on 7 November. Markets are expecting an NFP print of 150k for September, a tad higher than the 142k recorded for August. The labor market continues to cool, and analysts will also be paying attention to the unemployment rate and any revisions.
- EURUSD is treading water ahead of this afternoon’s data release, with the pair at the bottom of its recent range after failing to hold above 1.12. There is considerable resistance around 1.1205 and bids are seen between 1.0990 and 1.10. We have several ECB officials speaking throughout the day, although they are unlikely to sway the markets view of the timing and pace of ECB moves over the remainder of the year.
- BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill is also on the wires later today, and investors will be waiting to see if he backs up dovish comments made by Governor Bailey earlier this week. However, it is worth remembering that Pill was one of the dissenters at the August meeting, voting to hold rates unchanged, whilst Bailey voted with the majority of the MPC to cut by 25bp.
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