- Markets start the week in risk off mode as fears of further escalation in the Middle East pushed equities lower and oil higher. Investors remain wary of a further response to the weekend attack by Iran on Israel.
- It is a busy week for UK data, with markets looking to the March inflation report to see if the Bank of England will be on course to deliver a June rate cut. Ahead of this we look to tomorrow’s February jobs and wage data, which is expected to add to recent evidence that the jobs market is cooling. Wednesday sees the release of the CPI Inflation print for March, which is likely to drop back again to 3% from 3.4% in February. All aspects of the inflation report are expected to fall with markets looking for a sub 2% print in April in line with recent BoE projections, potentially giving the central bank the chance to drop the base rate in the coming months.
- The German ZEW Survey and Euro area Final inflation data are the main data releases from the euro area in the coming days, with Wednesdays CPI release expected to show a slight fall in March.
- Last week’s hot inflation report from the US pushed expectations of an imminent rate cut from the Federal Reserve back several months and markets will once again look at this week’s data calendar for clues on the timing of the first cut. Retail Sales are out today along with the Empire Manufacturing Survey and Tuesday sees the release of the Industrial Production report. The Fed’s Beige Book is out on Wednesday, Initial Jobless Claims are out on Thursday along with the Philly Fed Business Outlook.
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