- Tis the season to hold central bank meetings, with several key policy meetings in the final full week before markets wind down for Christmas. The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday, with most analysts expecting policymakers to deliver a final 25bp cut of the year to 4.25%-4.50%. With CPI and PPI already known, markets will pay close attention to comments from Chairman Powell to see if he can provide any guidance to the outlook for 2025. Markets are pricing in fewer cuts going forward as there remains an upside risk to inflation. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, we look forward to the release of the Empire Manufacturing report today and Retail Sales tomorrow. GDP and weekly jobless claims are out on Thursday, and Friday sees the release of PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation report. A soft print is expected supported by solid wage income and improved optimism about the future.
- It is a busy week for UK data, kicking off with the release of the Composite PMI survey this morning which is expected to rise slightly. UK labour market data is out on Tuesday with markets expecting a small tick up in pay growth. November’s CPI print is released on Wednesday, with a slight acceleration expected, driven by faster core goods price inflation. The Bank of England hold their final policy meeting of 2024 on Thursday and are expected to hold interest rates unchanged and signal that it intends to ease gradually throughout 2025. Retail Sales are released on Friday, with a rebound expected as consumers took advantage of Black Friday deals.
- Euro zone PMIs are out today with the German Ifo survey due tomorrow and the final print of CPI inflation out on Wednesday. A small uptick in November’s inflation print is likely, although that was expected by the ECB, with the outlook remaining one of general disinflation and weak growth.
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