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Home > Market Watch > EU & UK News > Mon February 26, 2024

Daily Insights
February 26, 2024

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  • The S&P 500 rallying last week got the market speculating of a soft-landing scenario for the economy, where growth continues and disinflation stalls. We have seen consumer sentiment improve, and the manufacturing sector recovering from last year’s breakdown but, inflation accelerated in January. Due to the lag of monetary policy into the economy, many still think that the most likely scenario will be a slowdown of the economy, and there is fresh new data this week to give us more clues.
  • Key data/events to watch this week in the US: Consumer Confidence (Tue.); Core PCE Deflator (Thu.); U. Michigan (Fri.); ISM Manufacturing (Fri.).
  • The DXY continues to trade below 104, currently at 103.90 following last week’s global risk-on positioning.

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  • Germany is within a blink of a recession following last week’s weak GDP data. The country’s economy shrank 0.3% last quarter, driven by a crash in investment. ECB rate cuts could be the solution for this, but they seem a long way off. According to ECB’s Policymaker Robert Holzman, he does not expect any reductions coming from the region until the Federal Reserve acts.
  • The euro has traded well last week, breaking the bearish trend we were in since the end of last year. We are currently trading higher at 1.0830, gaining +0.09% on the day. Next resistance is around 1.0884 and immediate support at 1.0815.
  • Key data/events to watch this week in the Euro-area: Euro-area M3 Money Supply YoY (Tue.); France, Germany, and Spain HICP Inflation YoY (Thu.); Euro-area CPI inflation Est. YoY (Fri.).

 

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  • It is a quiet week for the pound with only housing data expected to come out. The sterling is currently trading mid 1.26-1.27 against the greenback, after trading last week in the mid 1.25’s. BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill is due to speak later today and sterling traders are looking forward to that following last week’s dovish comments from the Central Bank’s Governor, Andrew Bailey.
  • Next Resistance at 1.27 and next support at the 1.26 handle, followed by 1.2520.
  • Key data/events to watch this week in the UK: UK Mortgage Approvals (Thu.).

Economic Calendar

26 Feb 2024
:
GBP - MPC Member Breeden Speaks
:
GBP - CBI Realized Sales
:
GBP - MPC Member Pill Speaks
:
USD - New Home Sales
:
EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks
:
JPY - National Core CPI y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85474 0.85203
gbp/usd 1.26761 1.26566
gbp/aud 1.93323 1.92816
gbp/nzd 2.05431 2.03582
usd/jpy 150.563 150.195
eur/usd 1.08322 1.08125
gbp/jpy 190.774 190.332
eur/cnh 7.80402 7.7904
usd/cnh 7.21017 7.20076
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 17893.1
DOW 39098.2
S&P 500 5081.5
BRENT CRUDE 81.43
WTI 76.23
GOLD 2034.13

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

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