Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
July 29, 2024

  • It’s a busy week for US data and events, as markets look forward to employment data in the coming days and the latest FOMC policy meeting. Fed officials meet on Tuesday and Wednesday and are expected to hold rates unchanged at 5.25-5.5% despite calls for a cut from some analysts. If rates are held steady, rate setters are likely to continue with recent rhetoric that a rate cut will be appropriate “sometime soon”. The week is also dominated by labor market data, kicking off with the JOLTs job openings report on Tuesday. Initial Jobless Claims are out on Thursday ahead of Friday’s Non-farm Payroll report. The July print is expected to come in around 190k, down slightly on the previous 206k. The jobless rate, which has climbed for three straight months, is expected to come in unchanged at 4.1%.
  • Euro area inflation and GDP data will be closely monitored this week, with GDP numbers for the second quarter expected to show that the region’s economy grew by 0.3%. Preliminary CPI figures for July will likely show that headline inflation stayed unchanged as ECB officials look for further signs of softening price pressures before it eases policy any further.
  • Many analysts have this week’s Bank of England policy decision on a knife edge, when they meet on Thursday. Inflation has been moving in the right direction but remains more stubborn that MPC members would like. Currently odds of a cut sit at 45% so a cut of 25bp should not be discounted, but the vote will likely be very close.

Economic Calendar

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GBP - M4 Money Supply m/m
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GBP - Mortgage Approvals
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GBP - Net Lending to Individuals m/m
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GBP - CBI Realized Sales
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GBP - BRC Shop Price Index y/y
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JPY - Unemployment Rate

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.84394 0.84264
gbp/usd 1.2888 1.28454
gbp/aud 1.96629 1.95972
gbp/nzd 2.18758 2.17594
usd/jpy 154.345 153.011
eur/usd 1.08699 1.08502
gbp/jpy 198.61 196.941
eur/cnh 7.89309 7.8794
usd/cnh 7.26668 7.25741
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 19179.7
DOW 40783.9
S&P 500 5492.21
BRENT CRUDE 81.53
WTI 77.42
GOLD 2394.83

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.