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Home > Market Watch > EU & UK News > Thu July 11, 2024

Daily Insights
July 11, 2024

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  • Catherine Mann, one of the most hawkish members from the MPC suggested yesterday that she might not be ready yet to back interest rate cuts, cautioning of a resurgence in UK inflation and a rapid increase in services prices. Earlier yesterday, Chief Economist Huw Pill also showed some reluctance to ease monetary policy too soon, stating that the time to start reducing borrowing costs is still an “open question”.
  • Traders took the news and quickly reduced bets of a 25-bps rate cut in August, driving the Sterling higher against most of its peers. GBP/USD continues to advance this morning, breaking through the 1.2850 and now hovering the June’s resistance at 1.2860.
  • UK GDP data released this morning shows that the UK economy has gained momentum in May, further supporting the pound. GDP surged 0.4% MoM in May, after an unchanged reading in April and 2 times higher than what economists initially expected.

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  • In the Euro-area, Germany final June CPI is due and the Euro advances to approach a resistance at 1.0845. Germany’s CPI is expected to be flat both on a yearly and monthly basis, at 2.2% and 0.1%, from the previous month, respectively.

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  • Wall street finished on the green on Wednesday, following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks to the Congress that did little to deviate traders from reducing bets on interest rate cuts. The S&P 500 advanced for the first time in history to 5,600.
  • Swap traders are now pricing in two Fed cuts in 2024, with the first one expected to be in September ahead of today’s key CPI data. Powell stated that the Fed didn’t need to see inflation fall below 2% before cutting interest rates.

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  • Congrats to all the England team and fans for reaching another Euro’s final. The best of luck for Sunday!

Economic Calendar

11 Jul 2024
:
AUD - MI Inflation Expectations
:
EUR - German Final CPI m/m
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GBP - GDP m/m
:
GBP - Construction Output m/m
:
GBP - Goods Trade Balance
:
GBP - Index of Services 3m/3m
:
GBP - Industrial Production m/m
:
GBP - Manufacturing Production m/m
:
GBP - BOE Credit Conditions Survey
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GBP - NIESR GDP Estimate
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USD - Core CPI m/m
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USD - CPI m/m
:
USD - CPI y/y
:
USD - Unemployment Claims
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GBP - CB Leading Index m/m
:
USD - Natural Gas Storage
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USD - FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
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USD - FOMC Member Musalem Speaks
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USD - 30-y Bond Auction
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USD - Federal Budget Balance
:
NZD - BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index
:
USD - President Biden Speaks

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.8432 0.84205
gbp/usd 1.28677 1.28492
gbp/aud 1.90525 1.90132
gbp/nzd 2.11269 2.1086
usd/jpy 161.75 161.473
eur/usd 1.08401 1.08323
gbp/jpy 208.099 207.575
eur/cnh 7.90044 7.8889
usd/cnh 7.29082 7.28336
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 20681.2
DOW 39762.2
S&P 500 5638.74
BRENT CRUDE 85.66
WTI 82.75
GOLD 2380.69

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

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