Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
November 14, 2024

  • US CPI released yesterday came out broadly inline with market expectations and gave the greenback a further boost against its G10 peers. The October headline printed at 0.2% with core coming in at 0.3% pushing treasuries higher. The data suggests that the FOMC is on track to deliver another 25bp cut when they meet for the final policy meeting of the year. This expectation was backed up by Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari, who yesterday said that he is confident that inflation is headed down, noting that the CPI data ‘confirms’ that downward path.  Markets are now pricing an 80% chance of an interest rate cut when the FOMC conclude their meeting on December 18.
  • After trying to hold above stubborn support around 1.06, EURUSD finally broke the key level spurred on by the US inflation report. The euro fell to its lowest level in a year falling as low as 1.0535 before consolidating in the mid 1.05’s. The next level of support comes in at 1.0522 ahead of the next psychological ‘round number’ at 1.04. The old support at 1.06 now becomes initial resistance although many analysts expect the pair to fall further. This morning markets await the release of euro area Industrial Production data which is likely to show activity suffering a further set back with little sign of picking up towards the end of the year. The ECB Monetary Policy Account is released at lunch time and analysts will be examining the accounts seeking further clues on whether another interest rate cut is on the cards in December.

Economic Calendar

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AUD - MI Inflation Expectations
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GBP - RICS House Price Balance
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AUD - Employment Change
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AUD - Unemployment Rate
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CNY - Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
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EUR - Flash Employment Change q/q
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EUR - Flash GDP q/q
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EUR - Industrial Production m/m
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USD - FOMC Member Kugler Speaks
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EUR - ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
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GBP - MPC Member Mann Speaks
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GBP - NIESR GDP Estimate
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USD - Core PPI m/m
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USD - PPI m/m
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USD - Unemployment Claims
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USD - FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
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USD - Natural Gas Storage
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USD - Crude Oil Inventories
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EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks
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USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks
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GBP - BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
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USD - Treasury Currency Report
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USD - FOMC Member Williams Speaks
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NZD - BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index
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JPY - Prelim GDP Price Index y/y
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JPY - Prelim GDP q/q

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.83198 0.83089
gbp/usd 1.27102 1.26728
gbp/aud 1.96323 1.95641
gbp/nzd 2.16544 2.15963
usd/jpy 156.135 155.405
eur/usd 1.05687 1.0534
gbp/jpy 197.994 197.475
eur/cnh 7.65988 7.6406
usd/cnh 7.25952 7.23607
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 21019.7
DOW 43942.1
S&P 500 5985.77
BRENT CRUDE 71.84
WTI 67.98
GOLD 2553.24

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.