Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
October 3, 2024

  • The pound has not been making many headlines this week, however GBPUSD is lower today after dovish comments yesterday from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey. The pace and timing of interest rate cuts from global central banks has been driving markets in recent weeks and the BoE has been largely on the sidelines until Bailey said in an interview with the Guardian newspaper that he sees a chance of more aggressive cuts if news on inflation continues to be supportive. The pound has been one of the best performing currencies this year and continued to post gains after the Federal Reserve and ECB cut interest rates, as markets believed that the BoE would not be as quick to cut rates. After trading above 1.34 at the end of last month, cable is currently consolidating in the mid 1.31’s as markets are now almost fully pricing in a 25bp cut at the November meeting. With both the Fed and ECB poised to deliver two more cuts in 2024 the odds of a consecutive 25bp cut from the BoE in December currently sits around 40%.
  • US labor market stats continue to dominate the data calendar this week, with tomorrow’s Non-farm Payroll release the highlight. After a solid JOLTs report earlier this week, analysts were looking for further clues from yesterday’s ADP Private Payroll release. Septembers’ print came in a touch over consensus at 143k vs 125k, however the market took the data within its stride as we now await weekly jobless claims, and the ISM Services index this afternoon.
  • Elsewhere, the Japanese yen hit a six-week low against the greenback after dovish comments from Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. The currency has endured a roller coaster ride during the past few trading sessions after Ishiba said that the economy isn’t ready for another interest rate hike.

Economic Calendar

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NZD - ANZ Commodity Prices m/m
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CNY - Bank Holiday
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AUD - Goods Trade Balance
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JPY - 10-y Bond Auction
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EUR - German Bank Holiday
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CHF - CPI m/m
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EUR - Spanish Services PMI
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EUR - Italian Services PMI
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EUR - French Final Services PMI
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EUR - German Final Services PMI
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EUR - Final Services PMI
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GBP - Final Services PMI
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EUR - PPI m/m
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EUR - French 10-y Bond Auction
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USD - Challenger Job Cuts y/y
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USD - Unemployment Claims
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USD - Final Services PMI
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USD - ISM Services PMI
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USD - Factory Orders m/m
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USD - FOMC Member Schmid Speaks
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USD - Natural Gas Storage
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USD - FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.83726 0.83235
gbp/usd 1.32648 1.31685
gbp/aud 1.93096 1.91912
gbp/nzd 2.12508 2.11261
usd/jpy 147.239 146.459
eur/usd 1.10464 1.10247
gbp/jpy 195.175 193.02
eur/cnh 7.78037 7.7636
usd/cnh 7.05123 7.03404
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 19784.1
DOW 42189.1
S&P 500 5708.82
BRENT CRUDE 74.78
WTI 71.05
GOLD 2654.9

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.