Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
September 19, 2024

  • The Federal Reserve delivered a 50bp interest rate cut at its policy meeting yesterday. Leading up to the announcement the market was split on the size of the reduction, and the 50bp move is seen as an attempt to ensure that the US economy achieves a soft landing. Chairman Jerome Powell justified the larger reduction, saying, “The labor market is actually in solid condition, and our intention with our policy move today is to keep it there.” He added, “To me, the logic of this – both from an economic standpoint and also from a risk-management standpoint – was clear.”  Some analysts had previously felt that the Fed was behind the curve and should have cut sooner and suggested that the larger reduction was a move to catch up. In his press conference, Powell said, “We don’t think we’re behind” adding, “You can take this as a sign of our commitment not to get behind.” The central bank’s updated projections indicated 100bp of cuts in 2024 and 2025, consistent with a downshift to reductions of 25bp increments going forward. The market is expecting further cuts of 25bp in November and December, but officials will be closely monitoring both inflation and labour market stats in the coming months to decide if further tweaking is needed.
  • After rallying yesterday to within touching distance of 1.33 overnight, the pound is consolidating ahead of today’s BoE policy meeting. The MPC is likely to decide against cutting rates for a second straight meeting, with rate setters widely expected to maintain a patient approach in their reduction cycle. A November reduction is more likely, and markets will be looking for clues from Andrew Bailey’s press conference should officials decide to maintain policy. Yesterday’s above consensus service inflation print may prompt MPC voters to decide to pause and wait for another set of data before deciding to continue with reductions.

Economic Calendar

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AUD - Employment Change
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AUD - Unemployment Rate
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CHF - Trade Balance
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CHF - SECO Economic Forecasts
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EUR - Current Account
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EUR - German Buba Monthly Report
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CNY - Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
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GBP - Monetary Policy Summary
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GBP - MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
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GBP - Official Bank Rate
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GBP - BOE Inflation Letter
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EUR - German Buba President Nagel Speaks
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CAD - Gov Council Member Vincent Speaks
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USD - Unemployment Claims
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USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
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USD - Current Account
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USD - Existing Home Sales
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USD - CB Leading Index m/m
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USD - Natural Gas Storage
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GBP - GfK Consumer Confidence
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JPY - National Core CPI y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.84203 0.84114
gbp/usd 1.32307 1.31531
gbp/aud 1.95388 1.94362
gbp/nzd 2.13014 2.11912
usd/jpy 143.944 142.518
eur/usd 1.11349 1.10684
gbp/jpy 189.411 188.384
eur/cnh 7.88983 7.8616
usd/cnh 7.11353 7.063
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 19630.3
DOW 41729.8
S&P 500 5674.37
BRENT CRUDE 73.98
WTI 71.08
GOLD 2575.31

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.