Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
December 17, 2024

  • Data released this morning showed that wage growth in the UK accelerated more than forecast in the three months to October as private sector pay strengthened. Average earnings growth excluding bonuses rose 5.2% from a year earlier, up from the previous reading of 4.8% and above consensus of 5%. Private sector growth increased to 5.4% from 4.9%, above expectations and higher than the Bank of England’s forecast of 5.1%. The tick higher in wages growth comes just a day ahead of key CPI inflation data and Thursday’s BoE policy meeting and underscores the central bank’s caution about cutting interest rates. The MPC has cut interest rates twice this year and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 4.75% when they announce their decision at midday on Thursday.
  • The dollar index is consolidating as markets remain calm in the final full week of the year as we await the Fed announcement tomorrow. The single currency is range trading ahead of today’s German IFO survey, which is unlikely to shift EURUSD outside of its recent range. US Retail Sales are on the docket this afternoon and are expected to grow slightly, driven by higher vehicle sales. Spending is expected to have received a boost from discounted around the Thanksgiving and Christmas period. This afternoon’s data is unlikely to impact markets or tomorrow’s Fed decision with most economists expecting a 25bp cut from the FOMC.

Economic Calendar

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AUD - Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
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GBP - Claimant Count Change
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GBP - Average Earnings Index 3m/y
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GBP - Unemployment Rate
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CHF - SECO Economic Forecasts
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EUR - German ifo Business Climate
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EUR - Italian Trade Balance
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EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment
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EUR - Trade Balance
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EUR - ZEW Economic Sentiment
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CAD - CPI m/m
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CAD - Median CPI y/y
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CAD - Trimmed CPI y/y
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CAD - Common CPI y/y
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CAD - Core CPI m/m
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CAD - Foreign Securities Purchases
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CAD - NHPI m/m
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USD - Core Retail Sales m/m
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USD - Retail Sales m/m
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CNY - CB Leading Index m/m
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USD - Capacity Utilization Rate
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USD - Industrial Production m/m
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USD - Business Inventories m/m
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USD - NAHB Housing Market Index
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NZD - GDT Price Index
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NZD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment
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NZD - Current Account
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AUD - MI Leading Index m/m
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JPY - Trade Balance

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.82957 0.82621
gbp/usd 0.78948 0.78696
gbp/aud 2.00123 1.98975
gbp/nzd 2.20507 2.19083
usd/jpy 154.345 153.797
eur/usd 0.95276 0.94926
gbp/jpy 195.9 195.129
eur/cnh 7.679 7.6474
usd/cnh 7.2963 7.28528
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 22088.5
DOW 43632
S&P 500 6067.05
BRENT CRUDE 74.06
WTI 70.87
GOLD 2653.89

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.