Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
December 3, 2024

  • The US economic outlook continues to drive markets as we await key employment data in the coming days which may influence the FOMC when they hold their final policy meeting of 2024 on 17 and 18 December. Ahead of the blackout period Fed officials will be vocal in the coming days with several yesterday suggesting that they expect the central bank to continue cutting rates throughout 2025. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that he is inclined to vote to cut rates later this month but added that upcoming data could still make the case for holding rates unchanged. Two of his colleagues were equally non-committal about a December cut with New York Fed President John Williams saying, “the path for policy will depend on the data” and his Atlanta Fed counterpart Raphael Bostic saying, “I’m keeping my options open.” Markets are currently pricing a 70% chance of a 25bp cut when the FOMC meet later this month, with Friday’s NFP report and next weeks inflation report eagerly awaited.
  • The greenback remains well supported with EURUSD consolidating around 1.05 with the single currency weighed down by French politics. A vote of no confidence in the French government appears to be looming with the spread between French and German treasuries widening to levels last seen in 2012 putting further pressure on the euro. EURUSD remains in a downtrend with the market expecting a further rate cut from the ECB at the 12 December meeting and last month’s low of 1.0335 looming.

Economic Calendar

:
GBP - BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
:
AUD - Current Account
:
JPY - 10-y Bond Auction
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CHF - CPI m/m
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EUR - French Gov Budget Balance
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EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change
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USD - JOLTS Job Openings
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USD - RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism
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USD - Wards Total Vehicle Sales
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NZD - GDT Price Index
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USD - FOMC Member Kugler Speaks
:
USD - FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.82978 0.82886
gbp/usd 1.26601 1.26381
gbp/aud 1.9578 1.95253
gbp/nzd 2.15558 2.14996
usd/jpy 150.24 149.495
eur/usd 1.05012 1.04804
gbp/jpy 189.931 189.236
eur/cnh 7.67021 7.6408
usd/cnh 7.31476 7.28042
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 21194.7
DOW 44796.2
S&P 500 6055.19
BRENT CRUDE 72.08
WTI 68.29
GOLD 2647.53

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.