Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
May 15, 2024

  • Inflation in the US remains a concern for global markets and yesterday’s Producer Price data came in hotter than expected, however all eyes will be on today’s Consumer Prices report. After the PPI release, we had several Fed speakers on the wires, including Chairman Powell who highlighted the strength of the economy and recent lack of progress on inflation. However, he did reiterate recent comments where he pushed back on interest rate hikes underlying the ongoing ‘higher for longer’ theme. His messaged was echoed by Kansas Fed President Jeffrey Schmid who said rates could remain high for “some time” as FOMC rate setters await evidence that price pressures are easing. This afternoon’s CPI release at 1.30pm UK time will be the main event of the day, with markets looking for a small deceleration from March. Headline CPI is expected to hold steady at 0.4%, with the year-on-year change nudging down a tad from 3.5% to 3.4%. Sticky inflation remains considerably above the Fed’s target rate and this afternoon’s data could have a significant impact on the timing of the first interest rate cut of the cycle.
  • The single currency is holding up well against the greenback, with EURUSD currently trading above 1.08 as we await this afternoon’s US data and the eurozone GDP report for Q1 this morning. We also wait the release of March Industrial Production data along side with GDP report, which coupled with ongoing CPI releases will help markets to decide if the ECB remains on course for a June interest rate cut.

Economic Calendar

:
AUD - Wage Price Index q/q
:
EUR - French Final CPI m/m
:
EUR - Flash Employment Change q/q
:
EUR - Flash GDP q/q
:
EUR - Industrial Production m/m
:
EUR - EU Economic Forecasts
:
GBP - 10-y Bond Auction
:
EUR - German 30-y Bond Auction
:
CAD - Housing Starts
:
CAD - Manufacturing Sales m/m
:
USD - Core CPI m/m
:
USD - Core Retail Sales m/m
:
USD - CPI m/m
:
USD - CPI y/y
:
USD - Empire State Manufacturing Index
:
USD - Retail Sales m/m
:
USD - Business Inventories m/m
:
USD - NAHB Housing Market Index
:
USD - FOMC Member Barr Speaks
:
USD - Mortgage Delinquencies
:
AUD - CB Leading Index m/m
:
USD - Crude Oil Inventories
:
USD - FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
:
USD - TIC Long-Term Purchases
:
AUD - RBA Assist Gov Hunter Speaks
:
JPY - Prelim GDP q/q
:
JPY - Prelim GDP Price Index y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85957 0.85914
gbp/usd 1.25994 1.25832
gbp/aud 1.90075 1.89424
gbp/nzd 2.08319 2.07839
usd/jpy 156.563 156.27
eur/usd 1.08276 1.08129
gbp/jpy 197.087 196.762
eur/cnh 7.83374 7.8145
usd/cnh 7.24204 7.22402
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 18329.6
DOW 39578.1
S&P 500 5251.49
BRENT CRUDE 82.86
WTI 78.52
GOLD 2356.41

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

author-headshot

Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.