Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
November 13, 2024

  • The US dollar continues to post gains with the dollar index sitting close to a two year high, led by higher treasury yields. The single currency remains soft against the solid greenback with EURUSD hovering above key support at 1.06 – a level which is sure to break very soon. We witnessed a false break of this level briefly yesterday but options demand between 1.05 and 1.06 is so far holding. Markets fear that a significant breach of the so far stubborn 1.06 support opens a move to the psychological 1.05 ahead of the October 2023 low of 1.0448. Some analysts are talking parity again, a level last witnessed in 2022.
  • The pound remains soft against the king dollar, trading on a 1.27 handle and consolidating ahead of the next round of data which includes UK GDP at the end of the week and CPI next Wednesday. Speaking after the release of the labour market report yesterday, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill remains cautious on inflation, saying, “There remain some underlying inflationary pressure in the UK economy.” Discussing the path of interest rates he said, “That’s likely to be a gradual process. It’s a question of how far…it’s a question of how fast.” The BoE next meet on 19 December and markets remain undecided on whether the MPC will pause or deliver a third cut of the year.
  • The attention this afternoon will be on the US CPI data released at 1.30pm UK time. An unchanged headline and core reading are expected for October amid signs that inflation is gradually coming down – however markets remain cautious of Trump’s tax and tariff policies and their impact on consumer prices towards the end of next year.

Economic Calendar

:
AUD - Wage Price Index q/q
:
JPY - 30-y Bond Auction
:
CNY - Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
:
GBP - MPC Member Mann Speaks
:
EUR - German 10-y Bond Auction
:
USD - Core CPI m/m
:
USD - CPI m/m
:
USD - CPI y/y
:
USD - FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
:
USD - FOMC Member Williams Speaks
:
USD - FOMC Member Logan Speaks
:
USD - FOMC Member Musalem Speaks
:
USD - FOMC Member Schmid Speaks
:
USD - Federal Budget Balance
:
NZD - FPI m/m
:
AUD - RBA Gov Bullock Speaks

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.83362 0.83276
gbp/usd 1.27546 1.27308
gbp/aud 1.95423 1.94958
gbp/nzd 2.15199 2.14832
usd/jpy 155.134 154.538
eur/usd 1.06294 1.06075
gbp/jpy 197.616 196.977
eur/cnh 7.6945 7.6703
usd/cnh 7.24914 7.22453
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 21034.3
DOW 43848.3
S&P 500 5977.43
BRENT CRUDE 72.06
WTI 68.28
GOLD 2605.79

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.