Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
December 15, 2023

  • After another round of policy meetings yesterday, the Federal Reserve remains the most dovish central bank in the G10. The FOMC have been actively discussing rate cuts while others are hiking, or comfortably on hold or pushing back against early cuts. Markets were further spooked yesterday following the unexpectedly dovish policy meeting, when a strong retail sales report and lower jobless claims print pushed the greenback lower against its peers. The dollar index fell to its lowest level since August, pushing EURUSD briefly above 1.10 and GBPUSD to within a whisker of 1.28.
  • The Bank of England held interest rates unchanged yesterday, sticking with its recent message that borrowing costs will remain high for some time. Governor Andrew Bailey said that the central bank is taking a “more cautious” stance than markets, adding that “it’s really too early to start speculating about cutting interest rates.” In a further warning, he said, “I don’t think we can say definitively that interest rates have peaked. I hope we’re at the top of the cycle.” His comments, along with the dollar sell off kept cable supported, however the 1.2750 area remains key with a break to the downside giving bears a potential run at the 50-day MA.
  • The ECB also kept rates on hold yesterday, with President Christine Lagarde warning that policymakers must not get complacent following the recent slump in inflation in the euro area. In a further contrast to recent Fed speak, Lagarde confirmed, “We did not discuss rate cuts at all.”
  • Ahead this morning we look forward to the release of PMIs from the Eurozone and UK. These are followed by US PMIs this afternoon, along with Empire Manufacturing and Industrial Production data.

Economic Calendar

:
GBP - GfK Consumer Confidence
:
JPY - Flash Manufacturing PMI
:
CNY - New Home Prices m/m
:
CNY - Industrial Production y/y
:
CNY - Retail Sales y/y
:
CNY - Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y
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CNY - NBS Press Conference
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CNY - Unemployment Rate
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JPY - Tertiary Industry Activity m/m
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CNY - Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
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EUR - French Final CPI m/m
:
EUR - French Flash Manufacturing PMI
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EUR - French Flash Services PMI
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EUR - German Flash Manufacturing PMI
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EUR - German Flash Services PMI
:
EUR - Flash Manufacturing PMI
:
EUR - Flash Services PMI
:
GBP - Flash Manufacturing PMI
:
GBP - Flash Services PMI
:
EUR - Italian Trade Balance
:
EUR - Trade Balance
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GBP - MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
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CAD - Housing Starts
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CAD - Foreign Securities Purchases
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CAD - Wholesale Sales m/m
:
USD - Empire State Manufacturing Index
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USD - Industrial Production m/m
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USD - Capacity Utilization Rate
:
USD - Flash Manufacturing PMI
:
USD - Flash Services PMI
:
CAD - BOC Gov Macklem Speaks
:
USD - TIC Long-Term Purchases

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.8617 0.86046
gbp/usd 1.27739 1.27474
gbp/aud 1.90561 1.89948
gbp/nzd 2.05984 2.0513
usd/jpy 142.464 141.567
eur/usd 1.10037 1.09767
gbp/jpy 181.73 180.754
eur/cnh 7.83712 7.8069
usd/cnh 7.13201 7.10149
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 16596.8
DOW 37373.1
S&P 500 4735.59
BRENT CRUDE 76.8
WTI 71.85
GOLD 2036.15

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.