The US dollar remains well supported ahead of a data packed week as investors continue to digest comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell last week. Markets remain focused on the central bank’s two key metrics – inflation and the labor market, and we look forward to a plethora of jobs data in the coming days. The JOLTs job openings report is out later today along with the Consumer Confidence report. Analysts expect consumer confidence to have slipped slightly as inflation remains elevated and mortgage rates increased putting rate sensitive ad hoc purchases out of the reach of many households. Wednesday sees the release of the second print of Q2 GDP which is expected to come in unchanged. Weekly jobless claims and personal income and spending data are out on Thursday including the PCE report which is the Fed’s preferred inflation metric. US data for the week wraps up with the Non-farm Payroll release for August, with markets predicted a print broadly inline with last month’s release of 187k. The headline employment rate will also be keenly watched and is expected to again come in unchanged at 3.5%.
Data across this side of the pond is dominated by inflation data in the euro area, which is expected to remain sticky in August. The data will be closely scrutinized by investors and the ECB and will likely keep another rate hike from the ECB on the table at next month’s policy meeting despite a slowing economy. It is a quiet week for UK data with just mortgage approvals data to look forward to in the coming days. Despite a bounce in approvals a few months ago as homeowners scrambled for deals before they were pulled, markets expect approvals to fall further as higher interest rates continue to hit homeowners.
