- Another day, another drop in the dollar, with greenback losing further ground against its G10 peers as the dollar index fell to its lowest level since August. The post US CPI fall continues, further influenced by month end flows which helped USDJPY fall towards 148. EURUSD is little changed, again consolidating in the mid 1.09’s after attempting to break higher, with the pair running into resistance around 1.0960. GBPUSD continues to trade within its recent range on a 1.26 handle, after attempting to follow EURUSD higher the pair again met resistance around 1.2640.
- In an interview yesterday, Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey suggested that UK interest rate cuts are unlikely for the “foreseeable future” and warned that the next round of the battle against inflation will be “hard work.” Whilst saying that the recent drop in inflation was “very good news” he cautioned that it is unlikely to be repeated. Inflation is still considerably above the central bank’s target and the governor, and his Chief Economist Huw Pill have highlighted the ongoing risk of sticky inflation, confirming that the MPC would be forced to hike again should inflation pressures return.
- Early rate cuts from the ECB are also looking unlikely, with Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel saying that the central bank is not yet at a point where it should consider reducing borrowing costs. In an interview he said, “It would be premature to lower interest rates soon or to speculate about such steps.” We will learn more about the inflationary environment in the euro area in the coming days with the release of October’s inflation report, but it is looking safe to assume that the central bank has concluded its rate hiking campaign and will deliver a second consecutive pause at next month’s policy meeting.