Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
July 15, 2024

U.S. Treasury yields are higher today, particularly in the long-dated tenors. The 30-year yield (4.469%) is now trading above the 2-year yield (4.462%) for the first time since January. Saturday’s assassination attempt on former president Trump has increased odds of him winning the general election in November, leading investors to adjust positions in anticipation of higher inflation (the ‘Trump Trade’), brought on by added tariffs and expanding fiscal policy.

Fed Chairman Powell speaks today at 12:30pm ET, his first public appearance following last Thursday’s better-than-expected CPI data which showed inflation continuing its retreat. Treasury prices surged following the CPI release, pressuring yields and raising the odds of a series of rate cuts beginning in September, eventually reducing the overnight rate by a full percentage point by January of next year. Traders will be monitoring Powell’s remarks for any sign of a pushback on the market’s rate cut expectations.

The U.S. Dollar Index is currently unchanged from Friday’s close after trading higher in the session. Spot returns for the dollar are mixed vs. the G10 but leaning overall to dollar strength: +0.82% vs. NOK, +0.71% vs. SEK, +0.39% vs. NZD, +0.39% vs. CAD. The dollar is virtually unchanged vs. EUR (-0.07%) and GBP (+0.08%).

Dollar gains vs. emerging market currencies are more pronounced: +1.69% vs. ZAR and +1.25% vs. MXN.

Bitcoin is +9.32% on heightened optimism for a Trump win in November.

The major U.S. Equity indexes are all higher today, led by the Nasdaq 100 gain of 0.68%. Crude oil prices are +0.02% (unusual low volatility for the commodity). Gold is +0.05% and silver -0.70%.

Economic Calendar

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CAD - Manufacturing Sales m/m
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CNY - New Home Prices m/m
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CAD - Wholesale Sales m/m
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USD - Empire State Manufacturing Index
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CAD - BOC Business Outlook Survey
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USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks
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USD - FOMC Member Daly Speaks
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CNY - GDP q/y
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CNY - Industrial Production y/y
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CNY - NBS Press Conference
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CNY - Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y
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CNY - Retail Sales y/y
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CNY - Unemployment Rate
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CHF - PPI m/m
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EUR - Industrial Production m/m
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EUR - Eurogroup Meetings

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 158.421 157.75
eur/usd 1.09202 1.08777
gbp/usd 1.29912 1.29536
aud/usd 0.67885 0.67624
usd/cad 1.3664 1.36191
eur/gbp 0.84117 0.83838
usd/mxn 17.8506 17.6104
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 5644.92
NASDAQ 20434.7
DOW 40259.1
GOLD 2414.75
SILVER 30.67

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.