Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
July 29, 2024

The dollar is starting the week higher vs. its G10 counterparts. The dollar index is +0.32% at 104.651 (its highest level since July 11th) and approaching short-term resistance at 104.85. Primary gains for the greenback are +0.39% vs. EUR, +0.34% vs. NZD, +0.30% vs. CHF and +0.25% vs. JPY.

The dollar had been in a loss position vs. JPY earlier in today’s session but support at 153.00 prevented further decline and the USDJPY 200-day moving average support at 152.28 is helping to keep yen gains in check. Resistance for the pair is at 155.50, an example of support turned resistance after breaking below that level on July 24th. Traders are focused on Japan’s central bank meetings this week with the possibility of the Bank of Japan outlining a plan to reverse years of stimulus.

This week’s U.S. economic calendar is full, but the key focus is on the FOMC’s rate decision announcement on Wednesday at 2pm ET. No change is expected (4% probability) to the current 5.25%-5.50% target range but there is anticipation for a dovish shift in the policy statement. Reflecting the potential policy shift, Fed Funds Futures are now pricing in a full 0.25% cut at the FOMC’s September 18th policy meeting and a high likelihood (92.9% probability) of another 0.25% cut at the December meeting.

U.S. Nonfarm payrolls for July will be released on Friday. Expectation is for a 175k gain, a drop from June’s 206k gain.

Equity volatility remains elevated following the CrowdStrike outage from ten days ago. The VIX Index (measure of equity volatility, commonly referred to as the ‘fear index’) peaked at 19.36 last Thursday, its highest since April 19th. Prior to the outage the VIX had ranged between 12.00 and 14.00.

Gold has retreated from its $2,483.60/oz record high on July 17th, now trading at $2,381.69. Oil is -0.79% today at $76.58/barrel. The $79.78 to $78.27 gap between the 22nd and 23rd should limit oil gains should prices reverse.

Economic Calendar

:
JPY - Unemployment Rate
:
GBP - M4 Money Supply m/m
:
GBP - Mortgage Approvals
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GBP - Net Lending to Individuals m/m
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GBP - CBI Realized Sales
:
GBP - BRC Shop Price Index y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 154.345 153.011
eur/usd 1.08699 1.08107
gbp/usd 1.2888 1.28067
aud/usd 0.65683 0.65324
usd/cad 1.38488 1.38162
eur/gbp 0.84606 0.8415
usd/mxn 18.5994 18.2894
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 5478.78
NASDAQ 19152.9
DOW 40580.2
GOLD 2389.65
SILVER 27.8

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.