U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 22nd were 233k, below the 265k estimate (the Juneteenth holiday may have skewed claims to the low side). Week of June 15th Continuing Claims (for ongoing unemployment benefits) were 1839k, above the 1828k estimate and the highest since November 2021.
GDP for Q1 was 1.4%, matching the estimate. Personal Consumption dipped to 1.5%, below the 2.0% estimate and 2.0% previous. Declining consumption partially explains MoM Retail Inventories which were reported 0.7%, higher than the 0.3% estimate. Wholesale Inventories increased, climbing to 0.6%, above the 0.1% estimate and prior. And Durable Goods Orders excluding transportation were -0.1% compared to the 0.2% estimate.
U.S. Treasury yields dropped following the soft economic data, most notably in long-term tenors. The 30-year tenor is leading declines -0.032%, and the benchmark 10-year yield is -0.031%, reversing yesterday’s gain.
The U.S. dollar was lower for the day prior to the economic data release, and has further weakened following the data, in step with declining yields. After reaching a 6-week high yesterday at 106.13, the dollar index is now -0.29% today at 105.749.
Tomorrow we will see the highly anticipated Core PCE Price Index data for May, the Fed’s favorite inflation reading at the consumer level.
