The U.S. dollar index reached a 3-month high today at 104.636, last traded on July 30th. The dollar is +4.47% since its most recent low on Sept 27th at 100.157.
The price of spot gold recorded another all-time high after reaching $2,771.61 today, its 6th record high for October.
U.S. Treasury yields are higher, continuing the short-term trend higher started mid-September. The 10-year yield is trading at 4.32% (highest since July) after trading as high as 4.335% overnight. Uncertainty over the upcoming U.S. general election is driving a risk-off shift to safe assets.
Election coverage has pushed Fed policy coverage out of the headlines, so just a reminder that the FOMC’s next policy decision is next week on Thursday Nov 7th. Markets are pricing in a high probability (97.8%) of a 25bps cut. This will be the Fed’s second consecutive rate action following September’s 50bps cut.
U.S. Job Openings for September were 7443k, coming in below the 8000k estimate. And August’s job openings were revised lower to 7861k from the initial 8040k reported.
October Consumer Confidence was 108.70, well above the 99.5 estimate and the highest since January 31st at 110.90. Confidence is boosted by record high equity markets, strong labor conditions, declining borrowing rates, and the overall resilient economy.
The economic calendar for this week features tomorrow’s ADP Employment Change, Thursday’s Weekly Jobless Claims, and Friday’s Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (estimated 110k).
