Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
August 15, 2023

Sterling traded in a very narrow range overnight and jumped to 1.2720 on alarming UK jobs data, but it has now retraced the movement and is hovering at the 1.27 level. USD/JPY trades mid 145-146 and EUR/USD edges comfortably above 1.09. AUD/USD trades above 0.65 and NZD/USD moves towards 0.60. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index heads lower, poised to trim its 3-day winning streak.

UK wages grew at a record pace suggesting the tight labour market could be feeding inflationary pressures through the economy. Average earning excluding bonuses increased by 7.8%in the three months through June YoY, from the previous print of 7.5% (which also came in above expectations). The Bank of England has expressed its concerns regarding soaring wages pushing prices higher in the UK, and this print of data just confirms that they are right to be worried. In addition, this adds further pressure on the BOE to raise interest rates once again, and policy makers have stated in the past that shall these pressures remain, that an interest rate increase could be in sight.

PBOC unexpectedly cut rates in efforts to stimulate the weakening economy of China, that is facing risks from a worsening property slump and poor consumer spending. USD/CNY advanced 0.4% to 7.2875, November’s high, and USD/CNH as much as 0.5% to 7.3124. China’s July industrial output and July retail sales both missed estimates YoY, adding further evidence of the deteriorating China growth momentum and the urgency for these stimulus.

Economic Calendar

1:30am:
AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
1:30am:
AUD - Wage Price Index q/q
2:00am:
CNY - Industrial Production y/y
2:00am:
CNY - Retail Sales y/y
2:00am:
CNY - Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y
2:00am:
CNY - NBS Press Conference
2:00am:
CNY - Unemployment Rate
4:30am:
JPY - Revised Industrial Production m/m
6:00am:
GBP - Claimant Count Change
6:00am:
GBP - Average Earnings Index 3m/y
6:00am:
GBP - Unemployment Rate
6:30am:
CHF - PPI m/m
7:01am:
EUR - French Bank Holiday
7:02am:
CNY - Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
7:03am:
EUR - Italian Bank Holiday
9:00am:
EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment
9:00am:
EUR - ZEW Economic Sentiment
9:03am:
EUR - EU Economic Forecasts
12:30pm:
CAD - CPI m/m
12:30pm:
CAD - Median CPI y/y
12:30pm:
CAD - Trimmed CPI y/y
12:30pm:
CAD - Common CPI y/y
12:30pm:
CAD - Core CPI m/m
12:30pm:
CAD - Manufacturing Sales m/m
12:30pm:
USD - Core Retail Sales m/m
12:30pm:
USD - Empire State Manufacturing Index
12:30pm:
USD - Retail Sales m/m
12:30pm:
USD - Import Prices m/m
1:30pm:
GBP - CB Leading Index m/m
2:00pm:
USD - Business Inventories m/m
2:00pm:
USD - NAHB Housing Market Index
2:03pm:
USD - Mortgage Delinquencies
2:33pm:
NZD - GDT Price Index
3:00pm:
USD - FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
8:00pm:
USD - TIC Long-Term Purchases

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.86043 0.85817
gbp/usd 1.27207 1.26751
gbp/aud 1.96121 1.94901
gbp/nzd 2.12666 2.11742
usd/jpy 145.594 145.319
eur/usd 1.09188 1.09004
gbp/jpy 185.019 184.342
eur/cnh 7.97157 7.9322
usd/cnh 7.31239 7.27192
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 13788.33
DOW 35307.63
S&P 500 4497.88
BRENT CRUDE 86.48
WTI 82.64
GOLD 1905.26

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.